Perspective: Morning Commentary November 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 10 Nov 2025, 13:39

Today's Perspective Video: China Stalls on Rare Earth Exports

November 10 – It’s day #41 of the partial government shutdown, but the end may be in sight after the filibuster in the Senate ended last night, allowing a vote on a Continuing Resolution to fund the government. A bit of a “risk-on” sentiment spread across Wall Street overnight on hopes that we may soon see much of the government data that’s been lacking over the past 40 days. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.13%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59%. Crude oil prices are bouncing modestly, probing at time back above $60 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed sector was mostly higher overnight as well.

Two Democrats from New Hampshire and an independent from Maine broke ranks from the Democratic leadership and brokered a deal to end the filibuster in the Senate that blocked it from voting on a CR to fund the government. That doesn’t automatically restart the government, but it is the first step in that direction. The Senate requires 60 votes to bring a measure to the floor for a vote. The Republicans have a narrow majority in the Senate, but they lacked the 60 votes necessary to bring the CR approved by the House in September to the floor for a vote. Until now, the Democrats had voted as a block to keep the CR off the floor. But that changed over the weekend. In the deal, these Democrats guaranteed at least eight votes to help end the filibuster. That opened the door for a vote on the CR, except the CR had changed due to the time that had elapsed.

This CR would fund the government through January 30^th, when we might have to go through this again. However, this CR also included funding for the remainder of the fiscal year (until September 30) for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration, the Department of Veterans Affairs, military construction projects, and the operations of Congress. Additional procedural votes must take place to advance the CR in the Senate. Remaining Democrats do not have enough votes to block it, but they have indicated that they will delay it as long as Senate rules allow on these procedural votes. Following final passage, this changed CR must now go back to the House of Representatives, where House Minority Leader Jeffries has vowed to fight it. The Republicans have enough votes there to pass it IF they all vote as a block, which is yet unknown. Assuming it passes, this CR would guarantee that all Federal civilian employees laid off during the shutdown are reinstated in their jobs and gives all employees backpay. It would also prohibit further reduction in workforce in any department or agency until after January 30. The negotiated agreement also assures Democrats that there will be a vote on their healthcare proposal by the second week of December. Included in that bill we’d likely see wording to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act that are expiring this month. Hopefully, the brokered agreement will reopen the government at some point over the next several days.

China cheered an improvement in its inflation data today, but it was hardly something to celebrate. China’s headline consumer price index improved to +0.2% year-on-year in October, up from -0.3% in September. However, much of the improvement was a product of the weeklong holiday in October. Consumer goods prices dropped 0.2% on the year, despite an extensive trade in program supported with massive government subsidies, although service prices did rise 0.8% year-on-year supported by holiday travel. Food prices were a major drag on the CPI, falling 2.9% on the year. Vegetable prices were down 7.3%, while meat prices were down 7.4% and eggs were down 11.6%. Core inflation that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose 1.2%, showing its greatest strength since March 2024. China’s producer price index recorded its 37^th consecutive month of contraction, falling 2.1% year-on-year, although that was an improvement from the -2.3% posted for September. Furthermore, there are emerging signs that consumer spending motivated by government subsidies is waning.

USDA is scheduled to release its November WASDE crop report on Friday, regardless of whether the government has reopened by then. It will provide a valuable reset for the markets who have been leaning on private data over the past six weeks. The most watched numbers on Friday will be the updated corn and soybean production numbers. USDA indicates that its field scouts were in the fields collecting crop data, despite the shutdown. As such, Friday’s data should increase market confidence in the size of this year’s crops so that traders can then focus on the demand side of the balance sheet going forward. Today’s data to be released from the Federal Grain Inspection Service might begin to show some shipments of soybeans and/or grain sorghum to China – at least that’s what market watchers are hoping. If so, it would provide the first hard evidence of China living up to its end of the agreement brokered in South Korea in late October to call a truce in the trade war. Other than that, traders will watch for more evidence of Chinese buying in the cash market.

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