Perspective: Morning Commentary November 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 11 Nov 2025, 14:26

Today's Perspective Video: Government Reopening Coming

November 11 – Today marks Veteran’s Day in America – the day that we remember those who sacrificed so much so that we can enjoy the freedoms that take so for granted today. Remember to thank a veteran! The bond markets are closed today, along with the banks, in honor of Veteran’s Day, while the equity and commodity markets continue to trade. Otherwise, today is day #42 of the partial government shutdown, with the airlines asked to cancel 6% of the flights due to the absence of air traffic controllers seeking work elsewhere to pay their bills. Stock futures were generally mixed in relatively quiet trade overnight, although fresh concerns over the tech sector possibly being overvalued provided some headwinds. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.3. The bond market is closed today. Crude oil prices are 1% higher this morning as traders balance oversupply worries with Russia sanctions risks. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly weaker in overnight trade as they began to position for Friday’s long awaited WASDE crop report.

A 60-40 vote in the Senate Monday moved the revised continuing resolution to the floor of the Senate for debate and discussion after a group of eight Democrats (including an Independent) crossed the line to join Republicans to end the filibuster that had prevented such over the previous six weeks. Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois – the Senate’s #2 Democrat – stated, “The government shutting down seemed to be an opportunity to lead us to better policy. It didn’t work.” He was part of the group that defied Chuck Schumer – the Senate’s #1 Democrat – to bring an end to the filibuster that had shut down the government on October 1^st. This deal funds the government through January 30^th, but it includes funding for the complete fiscal year through September 30 for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration, the Department of Veteran’s Affairs, military construction projects and Congressional operations. That means that these areas will not be shut down if we encounter the same type of filibuster on January 30 to shut down the government. As such, SNAP payments – food assistance programs – will continue to be processed. The bill also includes a one-year extension of the Farm Bill, and funding of USDA allows the Trump Administration to proceed with paying out farmer assistance payments estimated to be near $12 billion. The above CR is expected to be approved by the House of Representatives tomorrow – reopening the government.

China’s monthly CASDE report for November – its equivalent to our WASDE monthly crop report – provided no evidence to support the notion that there will be a substantial increase in state purchases to meet the 12 million metric ton commitment for calendar year 2025 as stated by the White House. The CASDE report maintains imports at 95.8 mmt for the 2025-26 marketing year, unchanged from its October estimate, and down from 109 mmt in the 2024-25 marketing year. The CASDE report does not estimate ending stocks in order to preserve the secrecy of reserve supplies. However, it does report changes in stocks at the end of each year. Stocks increased in each of the past three marketing years by totals of 3.54 mmt, 8.58 mmt, and 11.38 mmt. That brings total increases over the past three years to 23.5 mmt, or 863 million bushels, on top of what was previously in the reserves. USDA estimates China’s total reserves at the end of this past marketing year at 43.48 mmt, or 1.598 billion bushels. Domestic crush in China for the current year is estimated to be 94.2 mmt, or 3.461 billion bushels, down 4.7 mmt from the previous year. Private crushers are value buyers, and they’ve been buying primarily from South America because those supplies are cheaper, and even more so with the retaliatory tariffs in place. It’s believed that crushers have purchased roughly 40 mmt of soybeans from South American sources for the current marketing year already, but they still have zero financial incentive to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans. That would have to come from state buyers for China’s reserve, and there’s very little indication that these state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 mmt ahead of the end of this year, let alone 25 mmt more for calendar year 2026. We hope that will be the case, but thus far we see little evidence of it as the clock continues to tick.

Beijing did implement more steps to limit the exports of components used to produce fentanyl in keeping with the trade agreement reached at the end of October, raising some optimism that it may slowly comply with the agreement. China will now require a permit to export 13 drug related precursor chemicals to Canada, Mexico, and the United States. China did so trying to open the way for President Trump to remove the final 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods. It has suggested that removal of this 10% fentanyl tariff is essential before it removes the final 10% retaliatory tariff that keeps U.S. Ag commodities over-priced in the Chinese market. Unfortunately, time is running out for the removal of that 10% tariff to make much of a difference in the purchase of U.S. soybeans, with cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies already booked to start arriving at Chinese ports in February. The door hasn’t closed yet for U.S. soybeans, but we’re getting very close to that point. Yet, I expect USDA to maintain its 1.685-billion-bushel soybean export target on Friday. It wouldn’t look good to cut it immediately after reaching the agreement.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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