Perspective: Morning Commentary November 12

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 12 Nov 2025, 14:34

Today's Perspective Video: Government Reopening Coming

November 12 – It’s day #43 of the partial government shutdown, and hopefully the last. Leadership in the House of Representatives is accounting for all its members, to make sure they made it back into Washington, D.C. for today’s scheduled vote on the continuing resolution amid all the flight cancellations that are a product of the shutdown. Assuming that they all made it back, we should have a vote today on the CR, allowing the government to fully reopen once again. Agencies will then begin the arduous task of figuring out how to catch up on missed data releases over the past six weeks, finally giving the market the fundamental data needed to give it guidance. We could initially see areas of volatility where data differs from market expectations. Let’s just hope that we don’t repeat the process again on January 30^th.

Stock futures pushed modestly higher overnight on the above optimism. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning as any lingering fears ease on Wall Street, while the dollar index trades near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.09% as the bond market reopens today, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.56%. Crude oil prices are trading more than 2% lower today, taking back yesterday’s gains, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly lower as traders position for Friday’s highly anticipated USDA WASDE crop report.

Rare earth minerals continue to be a sensitive area for improving relations between China and the United States. China previously restricted the export of nearly all sensitive rare earth minerals and magnets to much of the world. It controls 90% of the world’s supply of processed rare earth minerals and magnets that are essential for much of today’s high-tech economy, as well as today’s advanced defense weapons. He who controls the world’s supply of rare earth minerals and magnets controls the world’s manufacturing capacity, as well as its ability to defend itself. President Trump threatened additional 100% tariffs in early October due to these restrictions, leading China to agree in late October to suspend its restrictions for one year. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that Beijing is developing a “validated end user” (VEU) system for managing who is able to import rare earths from it. This would allow China to export rare earth minerals and magnets while excluding companies with military ties. If strictly enforced, the VEU system would create challenges for U.S. automotive and aerospace firms with both civilian and defense customers to acquire these essential rare earth products. This could again trigger another response from President Trump to escalate tariffs once again. The United States is rapidly moving toward facilitating its own mining and processing facilities for rare earth minerals and magnets, using the same “warp speed” process that facilitated rapid development of vaccines during the pandemic. Even so, China’s policy could still leave the United States vulnerable over the next several years while those mining and processing systems are being developed.

Member nations of the European Union continue to seek yet another one-year delay in implementing a law meant to curb global deforestation. The law would require significant documentation for any commodity imported, proving that it came from locations that had not recently been deforested. That becomes particularly cumbersome and expensive for bulk commodities that can contain products from many locations. The law was set to take effect on January 1 of this year, but a one-year extension was granted to allow more time for setting up compliance procedures. Now some EU members want yet another year to reach compliance. The impact of this law would be felt by buyers of everything from soybeans to coffee to cocoa and palm oil. The intent of the law seems noble enough, but actual implementation will be highly inflationary as currently written, as it would require detailed maps and documentation for each field producing the commodity. Being green may be good for the planet, but it’s not cheap by any means. EU members currently disagree on whether a simple delay is needed to make compliance possible, or whether guidelines need to be simplified as well to reduce the costs of compliance.

President Trump stated, “We’re going to lower some tariffs,” in a recent interview when he was asked about the high price of coffee. That’s the first real confirmation that we’ve heard from the White House to Brazil President Lula’s recent statements that his talks with Trump have gone well, and that he felt that we were very close to a deal. That could mean a return of significant meat imports from Brazil as well. Meanwhile, the commodity markets expect to get a flood of fundamental data in the days ahead. USDA will release its long anticipated WASDE crop report on Friday. Assuming that the House approves the CR, the government should reopen tomorrow, and government agencies will begin the process of catching us up on export sales over the past six weeks, along with CFTC’s commitment of traders reports. All of this could prove to be a non-event if the newly released data is consistent with market expectations, or it could result in a significant reset if the data holds some surprises. Outside of that, traders will be watching for hard evidence on whether China plans to comply with its trade agreement or not.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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