Perspective: Morning Commentary November 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 17 Nov 2025, 13:50

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

November 17 – U.S. equities futures are fairly flat this morning, with the government having reopened but the onslaught of economic data not on the way until later this week. Major earnings reports are ahead later this week as well, led by chip giant Nvidia on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar is edging higher against a basket of major foreign currencies to start the week, as are WTI crude oil futures, while gold continues Friday’s decline. Ten-year treasury yields are up slightly this morning with the VIX index continuing to rise as well.

Empire State Manufacturing for the month of November beat expectations at a solid 18.7 reading, up from 10.7 last month and the average 5.8 trade guess; the New York Fed’s indicated the strongest expansion pace in a year thanks to increased new orders and shipments. August U.S. Census Bureau national construction spending is seen coming in at another 0.1% month-over-month decline later this morning, matching the July reading; otherwise, as previously stated, the bulk of the key economic releases will increase into late week, highlighted by the September jobs report on Thursday.

So what do we know about the upcoming data flow? Not as much as we’d like. The Census Bureau with catch up their construction/manufacturing/trade reports quickly this week, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis is “working to update their schedule”, in conjunction with the BLS, though the Fed’s major economic indicators will surely be prioritized. October data - whenever that is published - will likely be an issue due to the government shutdown. On the grain market side it’s just as messy, with export sales quickly getting a catch-up schedule, but still no word on delayed data from the CFTC or NASS. It will likely take until the end of calendar 2025 to get a handle on things…

Soybean optimism continued overnight despite a rough start to the week, following up the post-USDA decline; the bulls didn’t see what they wanted from Friday’s data dump. That included a 50-million-bushel U.S. soybean export decline and moderate (at best) flash sales to China and “unknown”. The now-spot January soybean contract (2025 daily chart below right) is once again back to test highs this morning; our in-house daily fund estimates had spec adding somewhere near 200k net soybean contracts across the government shutdown, though those estimates have yet to be confirmed or denied, with the CFTC yet to issue their official weekly report since the week ending Tuesday, September 23. No catch-up release schedule has been posted yet either. The trade will at least have daily flash sales to focus on going forward, along with delayed weekly sales reports, and current inspections data which will be published as usual this morning. The first moderate soybean flash sales to “unknown” didn’t hit the wires until late October, so official sales and inspections won’t reflect those for quite some time yet.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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