Perspective: Morning Commentary November 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 19 Nov 2025, 13:48

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

November 19 – U.S. equities markets are looking to rebound a bit this morning, trying to end a four-day losing streak from record Dow Jones highs last Friday; the trade continues to look ahead to Nvidia’s earnings report later today as a major indicator for chip giants and AI innovation. Fed minutes will be released later today as well, which will be parsed through for any clues on future policy moves from a now-split central bank. Ten-year treasury yields are off a bit this morning while gold futures rebound, and the U.S. dollar continues to tick higher as well on an extended rebound from the 99-point level. The VIX is retreating slightly after a strong rise yesterday, which took the volatility reading very near almost seven-month highs set back in mid-October.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy will hold peace talks in Turkey today and meet U.S. army officials tomorrow in a renewed bid to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The last face to face talks between the two sides were in Istanbul in July but the fighting has waged on, even increasing with a Russian missile and drone attack overnight that killed 19 and injured another 66. Reports yesterday emerged that President Trump and U.S. officials have been secretly formulating a plan to end the war, collaborating with a Russian envoy and even starting to notify European officials of the proposal.

Reuters reported yesterday that Russian natural gas producer Novatek slashed prices of natural gas cargoes to China, up to a 30-40% discount since August, in an effort to entice Chinese buyers. The gas company is owned by some of President Putin’s closest allies. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas companies are set to take effect on Friday, sharply reducing export volumes if enforced and increasing a global supply glut. WTI crude oil prices slipped under the $60 per barrel mark overnight, down almost $2/bbl on the session; the American Petroleum Institute in its weekly report yesterday noted a 4.45 mln bbl crude stocks build, in contrast to around a million-barrel draw expected from the Department of Energy in their weekly inventory report this morning.

MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending November 14 fell by -5.2%, down from a -0.6% week-over-week reading the week prior; home purchase applications fell 2.3% this week while refinancings dropped by 7.3%. The 30-year mortgage rate edged higher on the week to 6.37%, the second straight WoW rise from one-plus year rate lows in late October.

The U.S. trade balance for August was reported at $-59.6 billion, up from the average $-60.4 bln estimate and $-78.2 bln in July; that $-60 bln range is the tightest the trade balance has been since mid-2020, edging up against that level multiple times once again recently after a much sharper deficit posted in early calendar 2025. August imports declined by the most in four months while exports rose slightly. This report was originally scheduled for October 7. The major economic indicator continues to be the jobs data on tap for tomorrow morning.

The CFTC yesterday finally came out with a revised Commitment of Traders release schedule to cover the reports missed during the government shutdown. We will get the first delayed report this afternoon, with the first set of data only up to the week ending September 30, originally supposed to be published on October 3. Reporting won’t be entirely caught up until late January. That soybean net fund position was estimated by daily trade figures at -42k, and estimates had it peaking right at 200k net contracts higher on Monday (11/17); we will eventually see if that spec move was pegged correctly. The January soy contract picked up almost $1.50 per bushel during that time.

Soybeans continue to lead the way for the grains and oilseeds complex, with that direction clearly lower over the past 24 hours; traders are taking profits from that aforementioned $1.50/bu run, though no turn south over the past month-plus has been able to be sustained. The bulls will need to see more reports of Chinese buying, and more confirmation from daily flash sales and delayed weekly export sales/current inspections reports, to keep the ball rolling. Corn is mostly along for the ride, consolidating near recent highs and technical resistance, but aided by record export and ethanol usage paces and plenty of lingering ideas that production estimates are too high…

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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