Perspective: Morning Commentary November 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 20 Nov 2025, 14:42

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence – Senior Fertilizer Analyst

November 20 – Much anticipated labor data is the feature this morning, with September non-farm payrolls more than doubling the expected 50k increase expected by analysts, coming in at 119k, a huge improvement from summer readings and marking the largest growth seen since April. The month-on-month improvement looks even more significant with August being revised to show a net loss of 4k from its previous 22k increase. Of the 119k jobs added, 97k were in the private sector, up notably from only 18k in August, while 22k were in the public sector. This report, originally scheduled to be published in early October, appears to be worth the wait given the much better-than-expected job growth, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics did note that there will be no October report published since they were unable to collect data during the shutdown, adding that the figures can’t be gathered retroactively. Instead, those payroll figures will be incorporated into the November report that is scheduled to be released on December 16. Take note of that date, as this means this morning’s data will be the last non-farm payrolls figures published before the next FOMC meeting scheduled for December 9-10.

The unemployment rate did tick up to 4.4% from the 4.3% seen in August, above market expectations of holding unchanged and marking the highest unemployment seen in the U.S. since October 2021. The broader U-6 unemployment rate metric that includes discouraged workers, those working part-time due to an inability to find full-time employment, etc. improved from the month prior, however, moving down from August’s nearly four-year high of 8.1% to sit at 8.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly below expectations of 0.3%, while rising 3.8% in year-on-year terms, slightly above the expected 3.7% rise; August earnings were revised higher to show 0.4% month-on-month gains from the 0.3% previously reported. The labor force added 470k new participants in the month as well, bringing the labor force participation rate to its highest level since May at 62.4%.

Weekly jobless claims came in better than expected as well, adding to the morning’s positivity, falling to 220k from 232k in the week prior and besting market expectations by coming in below even the low-end estimate of 225k. This pushed the four-week moving average jobless claims down to 224k, improving from 228k in the week prior and marking the lowest reading for the metric since mid-August (this excludes the shutdown gap). On a less positive note, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.974M, up from 1.957M in the week prior and above analyst estimates of a slight move lower to 1.951M.

Nvidia’s closely watched earnings report after the close yesterday helped ease some nerves on Wall Street as well, with Q3 revenues coming in at $57.01B versus the expected $54.92B. Guidance for Q4 beat expectations too, with Q4 revenues seen by the company at $65.0B versus the average analyst estimate of $61.66B coming in. Much of the concern throughout The Street has centered around these lofty tech evaluations given the unprecedented strength seen in the sector in recent years on the hopes of what artificial intelligence can bring. Given the fact that Nvidia alone now has a market cap of over $4.5T (i.e. larger than the nominal GDP of nearly every country on earth, save for the U.S. and China) and the Magnificent Seven now have a combined market cap of over $22T, accounting for well over one-third of the S&P 500 as a whole, we shouldn’t expect these concerns to disappear any time soon. For now, however, it appears the market is content to breathe a sigh of relief with yesterday’s Nvidia earnings behind us.

All the above helped stocks gap higher to start the morning, with the major indexes up anywhere from 1.4% to 1.8% at the time of writing, with the tech heavy Nasdaq leading the way higher. The easing of Wall Street’s nerves is very apparent in the VIX this morning, down roughly 17% at the time of writing as it trades near 19.6, its lowest since Monday. The dollar is just below unchanged, holding above the 100 mark as it trades around 100.1 after touching a fresh two-week high earlier in the session. Treasuries are slightly weaker as well, with 10-year yields trading just above 4.11% and 2-year yields trading just above 3.56%. Crude oil is up slightly after yesterday’s losses, but nearby WTI remains stuck below the $60/barrel mark, trading around $59.60 at the time of writing. The ags are mostly higher to start the day. As a final note for the morning, keep an eye on sentiment from Fed officials between now and their December meeting as the debate over their next move heats up, with many members set to speak today and even more tomorrow.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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