Perspective: Morning Commentary November 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 25 Nov 2025, 14:35

Today's Perspective Video: Does Japan's Position on Taiwan Risk the U.S. Trade Deal with China?

November 25 – Stock futures were very quietly mixed overnight, as traders balance rate cut expectations with concerns about a slowing economy. The government released delayed producer price and retail sales data for September this morning, although neither held big surprises to move the needle much. The VIX eased back a bit to trade near 20, although it still remains somewhat elevated reflecting ongoing concerns. The dollar index traded near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.02%, representing nearly four-week lows, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%. Crude oil prices are nearly 2% lower this morning, although they largely remain within the range of the past couple of sessions. The grain and oilseed sector posted modest gains overnight.

Retail sales rose 0.2% on the month in September, falling short of analyst expectations of 0.4% growth, although still positive, nonetheless. Retail sales minus vehicles rose 0.3% in September, matching analyst expectations, but down from 0.6% growth the previous month. Retail sales minus vehicles and gas rose 0.1% on the month, falling short of analyst expectations of 0.3%, and down from 0.6% the previous month. Today’s numbers show growth in retail sales for September, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated, which Wall Street will argue justifies another rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The producer price index rose 0.3% on the month in September, matching analyst expectations for the month. The headline PPI rose 2.7% on the year, exceeding analyst expectations of 2.6%. The core PPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose just 0.1% on the month in September, down from expectations of 0.3%. The core PPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in September, down from analyst expectations of 2.7%. Goods inflation sits at 3.3% on the year after seeing a 0.9% on the month, while services inflation was flat on the month, and up just 2.5% on the year in September. The goods inflation rise in September is concerning, but not all that unexpected. I don’t see much here to change Wall Street’s hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve when it meets in two weeks. On a related note, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported today that its house price index was flat month-on-month in September, after rising 0.4% in August. The price index was up 1.7% year-on-year in September, down from 2.4% in August.

Ukraine agrees to President Trump’s peace plan after some modifications were made, according to various news reports, although those changes may result in Russia’s rejection of the deal. President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is expected to travel to Washington yet this week to finalize the details. I remain skeptical that we will see a peace plan implemented in the near-term, although I hope that I am wrong. President Putin of Russia appeared anxious to find an off-ramp to exit the war early this year, until President Xi visited Moscow. Everything changed after that, with Putin seeming to do all that he could to keep the war going. That keeps the U.S. away from rare earth minerals in Ukraine, while also consuming military assets that are difficult to replace in the absence of access to rare earth minerals and magnets. It also keeps Putin from realigning with President Trump to oppose Chinese President Xi, who Putin aligned himself with to have support against the West during the war. None of the 3 trust each other.

President Trump and President Xi held a call to de-escalate tensions created after Japan’s new foreign minister voiced support for providing military support for Taiwan earlier this month. Beijing initiated the call after Japan made plans to deploy missiles on an island just 110 kilometers or 68 miles away from Taiwan. The Chinese government stated that Xi underscored to Trump that Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order, to which President Trump reportedly stated that he understood Taiwan’s importance to China. Trump then posted on social media, “Our relationship with China is extremely strong!” He then announced plans to visit Beijing in April of next year. Trump then reportedly called Japan’s Prime Minister to discuss the tensions. This eases for now fears that the Taiwan issue could undermine the trade deal reached with China a few weeks ago. But then, Xi also sent a congratulatory letter to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on the eve of his birthday, describing China and Venezuela as “intimate friends, dear brothers and good partners.” This comes as the White House considers ways to remove Maduro from office as an illegitimate president.

Crude oil prices continue to test the lower end of their recent trading range below $58 per barrel amid over-supply concerns, while the grain and oilseed markets try to consolidate higher following recent losses. Future price direction largely hinges on whether China makes the large purchases that the White House says it committed to make in the weeks ahead. Skepticism that it will do so keeps a lid on the market, while fear / hope that it might do so prevents traders from pressing the short side until more is known.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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