Perspective: Morning Commentary November 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 26 Nov 2025, 14:29

Today's Perspective Video: Does Japan's Position on Taiwan Risk the U.S. Trade Deal with China?

November 26 – Stock futures continued to edge higher this morning on rising hopes of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve in two weeks, even as traders digest an assortment of old and fresh economic data releases. Even so, it is the day before the Thanksgiving holiday today, and many traders are already absent for the extended holiday break. The markets are closed tomorrow, before a shortened trading session on Friday, which is also expected to see thin volume. Nonetheless, the VIX managed to slip to a fresh 13-day low below 18 this morning as anxiety eases on the Street, while the dollar index trades near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.02%, after probing briefly below 4% yesterday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%. Crude oil prices traded quietly mixed overnight, while the grain and oilseed markets were generally posting modest gains.

Durable goods orders rose 0.5% on the month in September, up from analyst expectations of 0.1%, but down from a robust 3.0% growth pace in August. Again, this is delayed data due to the government shutdown. Durable goods orders minus transportation rose 0.6% on the month in September, beating expectations that they would be flat and slightly above the 0.5% growth pace seen in August. Core capital goods orders are seen as an indicator of business sentiment. They rose a solid 0.9% on the month in September, matching the pace seen in August. Overall, these are good numbers for September, but we’ve also had other data to suggest that perhaps things slowed down in October. As such, their impact was limited today.

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to a low 216K in the week ending November 22, down from 222K the previous week, and below analyst expectations that they would rise to 225K claims. The four-week moving average slipped slightly lower to 223.75K claims, down from 224.75K the previous week. Continuing claims in the week ending November 15 rose by 7K to 1.960 million, after the previous week’s number was revised down by 21K. The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 750 to 1.956 million. Initial claims for unemployment benefits filed by former Federal civilian workers totaled 1,724 in the week ending November 15, down 3,995 from the prior week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending November 8 totaled 33,083, down 5,784 from the previous week. In other words, we had a surge of Federal workers file for unemployment benefits during the government shutdown, but those numbers are now on the decline as some workers are hired back, others find new jobs, or some simply retire. Otherwise, the weekly claim numbers for the general workforce remain at historically low levels, while the continuing claim numbers remain elevated. Employers are not laying off large numbers of workers – outside the headlines of a few firms – but companies generally are not filling open positions either.

China’s state buyer continues to purchase U.S. soybeans, although confirmation of all of those purchases will be lacking until USDA catches up with its reporting at the end of the year. The question is, will they buy everything that they committed to purchasing. But there’s a big concern on the ground in China about where they would put all of those soybeans if it were to purchase what it committed to buying. China may not have enough storage capacity to take delivery of all of those soybeans without dumping some of the soybeans currently in its reserves. That then would reduce the quantity of soybeans that it would need from Brazil, leading it to wash out some purchases. Is China committed enough to this agreement to cancel purchases of cheaper soybeans so that it can import more expensive soybeans? That would speak volumes about China’s desire to calm geopolitical tensions with the United States so that it can focus on shoring up its domestic problems at home. That shift in sentiment became apparent following China’s Fourth Plenum meeting of the Chinese Communist Party in late October. Regardless, that’s still negative for the global balance sheet, as Chinese livestock returns continue to be deep in the red. Larger Brazilian supplies due to washed out business with China would likely result in many other customer switching to those cheaper supplies, away from the United States. For now, private Chinese crushers continue to fill their coverage needs for the December to August period with those cheaper Brazilian supplies.

A change in sentiment is also seen in the Trump Administration. The White House appears increasingly concerned about a loss of support from independent voters concerned about rising food costs and uncertainty in the economy that has created a soft job outlook. President Trump is doubling down on seeking peace in Ukraine, while trying to do what he can to ease tensions with China, Brazil, and other trading partners. He’s focused on bringing down the cost of beef and coffee – two of the largest inflationary commodities in the food sector – while also seeking to remove uncertainty from the economy. The midterm elections next year will be critical for continuing his agenda, and he risks losing it all if he loses the independent voter. The tide is shifting in both China and in the United States.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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