Perspective: Morning Commentary October 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 15 Oct 2025, 12:01

Today's Perspective Video: China's Rare Earth Power Move

October 15 – It’s day #15 of the partial government shutdown, but that’s not really on the mind of most Wall Street traders, other than the fact that they’re flying blind from a data standpoint. Otherwise, there’s still little fear that the shutdown is having a significant impact on the economy at this point, although that day might come. But few traders expect the shutdown to last long enough to reach that level of stress on the economy. Meanwhile, stocks found support overnight from comments from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that an agreement has been reached for the United States to keep tariffs low, while China allows for the flow of rare earth minerals and magnets. Additional support comes from a strong earnings report from Morgan Stanley this morning to set a positive tone. Stock futures are finding support this morning, while the VIX trades near 19. The dollar index is trading near 98.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are again testing support at 4%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.48%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the grain and oilseed markets were mostly lower overnight.

Ukraine President Zelensky is expected at the White House on Friday, responding to an invitation from President Trump to discuss the war in the Black Sea. Zelensky stated that they will discuss a series of steps that he intends to propose. Zelensky’s Chief Advisor Andriy Yermak and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov are expected to arrive in Washington prior to Friday to engage the Trump Administration in discussions on those proposals ahead of the Zelensky meeting. It appears that Zelensky’s proposals are focused on responding to Russian attacks on it, while also executing some pre-emptive strikes on Russian soil, including speculation that he may request permission from the White House to use long-range Tomahawk missiles to strike deep within Russia to force President Putin to back off on his offensive strikes on Ukraine. What will never be publicly stated but that may be a factor in that decision is that the inability to obtain rare earth minerals and magnets may be inhibiting sufficient replacement of those weapons, which might be a factor in Trump’s decision on whether to grant such a request. Otherwise, a continual slow escalation of the war is more likely, with it perhaps just being a matter of time before commodity shipments in the Black Sea become a target, by one side or the other.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke to the National Association of Business Economics in Philadelphia yesterday. That was last public speech to be given ahead of the October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee late this month, so traders were paying close attention to what he would say. Powell acknowledged the current economic challenges that have policymakers nearly evenly split on policy direction going forward. Current economic data – pre- government shutdown – suggested stronger than expected economic growth, but that is offset by softness in the labor market. Job creation remains quite low, as businesses wait for more certainty over tariff policy, but people continue to spend money and some aspects of inflation remain sticky. The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release consumer price index data on October 24, just ahead of the next Fed meeting, despite the partial government shutdown. Powell stated that he feels that the Fed will have enough public and private data available for it to make an informed decision at the end of the month, especially with the CPI data coming out. Some policymakers remain concerned about inflation, making them reluctant to make more rate cuts, especially with the economy showing signs of growing faster than what they expected when they last met. The general sense is that the FOMC will remain on the rate cut cycle that it started last month, but likely not at the same pace as anticipated by the market. Powell blamed lingering inflation pressures on goods prices tied to tariffs, despite the fact that services inflation has also turned a bit higher again in recent data.

President Trump once again tried to ease market concerns about China late yesterday, while also stating that he viewed China’s absence from the U.S. soybean market as an “economically hostile act.” He went on to say that his administration is considering banning purchases of cooking oil from China in retribution, but he very well may have meant to say, used cooking oil – UCO. Massive imports of UCO competed with soyoil, and other edible fats and oils in recent years as a feedstock for biomass diesel production. The Environmental Protection Agency proposed giving just 50% credits for imported feedstock, while the tariffs should also add some disincentives for UCO use in the future, but the 50% credit proposal received considerable kickback from the petroleum industry, which worried about whether domestic feedstock supplies were sufficient to meet the EPA’s more aggressive RVO standard? The current tensions with China may play into the EPA’s decision on that. Grain and oilseed traders remain skeptical this morning about whether an agreement has been reached with China, leading to continued weakness in soybean prices, as well as in the corn and wheat markets. Hope that we will have an October WASDE crop report is quickly vanishing as we move into day #15 of the partial government shutdown. The October 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days, and the October WASDE crop report was cancelled that year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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