Perspective: Morning Commentary September 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 11 Sept 2025, 13:33

Today's Perspective Video: BRICS Breakdown and Biofuel Roadblocks

September 11 – Stock futures again found modest strength overnight ahead of this morning’s inflation data release on rate cut expectations, but amid rising political tensions over the assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk. The inflation report was basically a nonstory this morning, but traders did take notice of a spike in weekly jobless claims. Let us not forget that Wall Street also is remembering that fateful day 24 years ago when America was attacked on its own soil with the downing of the World Trade Center towers. The VIX continues to trade near 15, while the dollar index trades near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.02%, which is roughly 40 basis points above where they were trading a year ago ahead of anticipated rate cuts, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.52%, which is roughly 5 basis points below where we were a year ago. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker, while the grain and oilseed sector traded mixed to firmer overnight.

The headline consumer price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, doubling the previous month’s pace, and above analyst expectations of a 0.3% rise. However, headline inflation rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, matching analyst expectations, although up from 2.7% the previous month. Core CPI, that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors, rose 0.3% as expected, which also matched the previous month’s pace. Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in August as expected. The headline number pushed higher due to a rise in energy prices in August, which were up 0.7% on the month. Gasoline prices rose 1.9% on the month, leading the way for the energy complex. Used cars and trucks rose 1.0% on the month, adding to those higher headline numbers. But not all energy prices were higher, with fuel oil down 0.3% on the month, and natural gas down 1.6%. We saw modest deflation in medical care commodities and medical services, while transportation services saw a 1% spike on the month. The bottom line is that we continue to see sticky inflation, but not necessarily from the areas that Wall Street expected – tariffs. However, the Fed’s actions over the past several years combined with Wall Street’s reactions suggest that the Fed treats 3% inflation more as being the mandate rather than the actual 2% mandate.

But the market was more focused on the jobless claims this morning, because that fit its narrative better for getting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. First-time claims for unemployment benefits spiked 27K to 263K claims in the week ending September 6, up from 236K the previous week, and above the average trade guess of 234K claims. This pushed the four-week moving average up to 240.5K claims, up from 230.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending August 30 totaled 1.939 million, unchanged on the week. The four-week moving average for continuing claims slipped by 750 to 1.946 million. But the focus was on that spike in the weekly number that was at its highest level since October 2021. First-time claims filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 527 in the week ending August 30, up 12 on the week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian employees in the week ending August 23 totaled 8,211, up 83 from the previous week. The market is now trading roughly 90% odds of three rate cuts between now and December – one in each of the next three meetings.

Watch the yield curve going forward. That will be telling in my view. The Fed began a 100-basis point rate cut process a year ago, but yields on 10-year Treasuries rallied more than 120 points from September to January. Two factors played into that spike in the yield curve – rising inflation expectations, as reflected in the 2-year breakeven inflation rate, and fiscal spending problems. The market fully expects the Fed to start its next rate cutting cycle next week, but will we once again see a rise in the yield curve in the weeks and months again, with both inflation and fiscal spending again the central focus? The rebound in inflation doesn’t surprise me. It’s something that I’ve been expecting for the past 12 to 18 months, and that is playing out. But my biggest concern continues to be the inability of Congress to control fiscal spending, with an increasingly larger share of money available for investment now going toward financing our national debt rather than going into investing in our economy.

USDA releases its monthly WASDE crop report tomorrow. I’ve already outlined the primary factors that traders will be monitoring in that report. The bigger stories are focused on the continued absence of China from the soybean market as we are now in the midst of when we should be seeing our highest sales level to China. The other story worth following is on the domestic demand side, with a wire service report out yesterday saying that the Trump Administration is proposing a partial offset of the granted small refinery exemptions granted by the Environmental Protection Agency last month. The plan would reportedly ease the loss of biofuel demand by the equivalent of roughly 550 RINS. The White House is trying to find a compromise that can appease two powerful lobbies in Washington – big oil and the Ag sector. However, this is all complicated by a bill introduced in the Senate that would block any offsets, amid reports that at least 42 senators have already signed on to it to this point.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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