Perspective: Morning Commentary September 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 16 Sept 2025, 13:29

Today's Perspective Video: Will We See A Trade Deal with China?

September 16 – The Federal Open Market Committee – the policy branch of the Federal Reserve – begins two days of meetings today, with all of Wall Street and Washington absolutely convinced that they will end with a rate cut tomorrow afternoon. Wall Street also took note that an apparent framework agreement has been reached with China for the transfer of ownership of TikTok, which means that the two powers can reach agreements when they want to do so. Both the Nasdaq and S&P stock futures indices pushed into record territory overnight, although they pulled back from those highs this morning, despite better-than-expected August retail sales data. The VIX is trading just below 16 this morning, while the dollar index fell to fresh 10-week lows to trade near 97.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.05%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.53%. The commodity sector garnered support from the weaker dollar, with crude oil prices 1% higher, and the grain and oilseed sector higher as well in overnight trade.

Retail sales rose 0.6% on the month in August, matching the upwardly revised pace of the previous month, but twice analyst expectations of 0.3% growth. Retail sales minus vehicles rose 0.7%, up from 0.4% the previous month, and exceeding analyst expectations of 0.4%. Retail sales minus both vehicles and gas also rose 0.7% on the month, up from 0.3% the previous month. Keep in mind that this retail sales data is based on value of transactions rather than quantity of product purchased. As such, inflation does increase retail sales data. That said, data released this morning showed that import prices rose 0.3% on the month in August, down from 0.4% gains in July, but exceeding the -0.2% expected by analysts. Import prices were flat year-on-year in August. On the other hand, export prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, while rising 3.4% year-on-year.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated Monday that a framework agreement has been reached with China to resolve issues over TikTok. The United States has concerns about security as long as the popular App is owned and managed by China. Bessent hinted in his comments that the agreement would “switch to U.S. controlled ownership,” although that is not yet confirmed. More details are expected to emerge following a call between China’s President Xi and U.S. President Trump on Friday. In a related matter, it appears that U.S. officials are softening their tone regarding Beijing’s purchases of Russian energy. Trump had been calling for the G7 group of nations to impose immediate 50 – 100% secondary tariffs on China for those purchases, but Bessent stated that the United States won’t hit China with the tariffs unless the European Union acts first to do so.

There has thus far been no mention of soybeans or any other commodities being a part of the negotiations, which are continuing today. The start of the soybean marketing year on September 1 typically marks the start of the U.S. export campaign to supply China with soybeans through January or February, when cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies would begin to arrive. The five-year average for Chinese commitments for U.S. soybeans already on the books by the first week of September is just shy of 400 million bushels. Yet, zero commitments are on the books thus far this year. Meanwhile, China has already committed to accept shipment of 625 million bushels of South American soybeans over the next several months. Arrivals from South America at Chinese ports are expected to top 360 million bushels both this month and next. Brazil’s ANEC believes that Brazil still has nearly 590 million bushels of exportable supplies between October and December. There are also rumors in China’s cash market that the government may release between 110 million and 185 million bushels of soybeans from its reserves over the next several months to help fill the gap ahead of Brazilian new-crop supplies arriving early next year. That makes it physically possible for China to avoid imports from the United States as long as Brazil’s growing season gets off to a good start in the weeks ahead to supply sufficient quantities in 2026.

China continued to increase stimulus via issued government bonds as it continues to push money into China’s economy. China increased bonds by 1.37 trillion yuan ($192 billion) in August, up 9.5% on the month, but down 15.5% year-on-year. China issued 10.27 trillion yuan in bonds ($1.44 trillion) in the first eight months of the year, compared to 5.6 trillion ($787 billion) last year. M1 money supply rose nearly 6% year-on-year in August, up from 5.6% in July. M2 money supply rose 8.8% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July. Look for China to take a conservative approach to negotiations until it hears the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on the legality of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs next month. China’s economy is hurting, but the people of China believe that President Xi is standing up to a bully who has been pushing China around, based on what they’ve been told by State media. They’re not about to give away a lot in negotiations when they might not need to give away anything if Trump loses his power to use tariffs against them.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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