Perspective: Morning Commentary September 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 22 Sept 2025, 13:30

Today's Perspective Video: China's Soybean Pivot Raises Questions for U.S. Agriculture

September 22 – Stock futures pulled back modestly overnight, led by weakness in the tech sector, as Wall Street sorts through the implications of President Trump’s executive order on H1B visas that he signed on Friday. The VIX rose to trade above 16 this morning, while the dollar index traded near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.13%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.57%. Crude oil prices are trading modestly weaker once again this morning, while the grain and oilseed sector traded lower as well overnight, led by soybeans that are disappointed that there was no mention of agricultural commodities following Friday’s conversation between President Trump and President Xi.

President Trump signed an executive order on Friday that will impose steep new visa fees on those holding coveted H1B visas. The new policies will charge $100,000 per year to holders of the visas, beginning with new applicants over the coming year. The new policy caught the market off-guard, with tech companies immediately warning employees not to travel overseas and asking those who were currently overseas to immediately return to the States. Most analysts indicate that the immediate impact should be negligible, since it applies to new applicants in the next visa lottery, but the uncertainty created fear among many foreign workers and their employers. Nonetheless, the new policy is expected to tighten the supply of skilled workers, raising wages for workers as tech companies fight over the existing supply. Workers from India made up 69% of the H1B applicants in 2024, followed by workers from China at 14%.

An executive order approving a deal for a U.S. purchase of TikTok is expected later this week, according to the Wall Street Journal, ending months of negotiations between China and the United States. China’s divesture from the platform was at the center of a phone call between President Trump and President Xi on Friday. The U.S. takeover of TikTok is expected to be majority owned by American investors and operated here in the States by a board of directors with national security and cybersecurity credentials, according to Reuters. However, we’re still lacking confirmation from China’s side that an agreement has been reached. Rather, one would get the impression that the two sides are still far apart, based on how the issue is being discussed in China. It says something about the world that we live in when ownership of TikTok takes precedence over trade talks about China buying U.S. soybeans.

That reality hit home on Friday, sending soybean futures lower, with follow-through weakness coming this morning as the charts start to break down. There was some hope that an agreement could still be reached in the weeks ahead after it was announced last week that President Trump would visit Beijing connected with his trip to South Korea at the end of October to attend the APEC conference. However, there are reports that morning that President Trump has delayed that trip to Beijing until early next year, which suggests that China and the United States are still far apart on key issues. Typically, state visits are tied to significant deals that can be signed, so the delay of a visit suggests that the two leaders have little confidence that they’ll have a deal to sign.

Additional pressure came this morning after Argentina announced that it will seek to increase the supply of dollars it holds by eliminating withholding taxes on grain exports until October 31, or until it reaches an amount equivalent to $7 billion. Argentina needs dollars to meet its dollar-denominated debt obligations. Argentine crops are sold on the global market in dollars, which are then brought home to be converted to local currency. That conversion process provides dollars for Argentina’s foreign exchange reserves, which it uses to pay its debts, while also supporting the peso. The tax holiday is expected to dump more Argentine corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, and wheat onto the export market, competing with U.S. commodities in some markets.

Exporters sold 12.6 million bushels of U.S. corn to Mexico over the weekend, on top of the 8.1 million bushels sold to “unknown destinations” on Friday, keeping demand for this large new crop. Brazilian corn largely remains on the sideline, amid strong basis in Brazil due to a lack of farmer selling combined with strong domestic demand. USDA’s current U.S. corn export target for the marketing year that began on September 1 is a record 2.975 billion bushels. Yet, commitments early in the marketing year are already 175 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target. Unfortunately, the current collapse of the soybean market on the realization that we may not export any soybeans to China this year acts as an anchor to the corn market. The good news is that lower prices will keep U.S. corn competitive on the global market, as well as aid ethanol and feeding margins here in the States, building the longer-term demand base for corn. The next question is, will wheat prices be able to hold at contract lows? That could also influence where the corn market goes in the near term.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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