Perspective: Morning Commentary September 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 30 Sept 2025, 13:23

September 30 – Stock futures had more of a cautious tone overnight as traders monitor negotiations in Washington regarding funding for the government, while waiting for key jobs data to be released over the next several days that could impact future monetary policy. The VIX traded above 16 overnight, while the dollar index traded near 97.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.13%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.61%. Crude oil prices were another 1% lower on expectations that OPEC+ will continue to increase output, while the grain and oilseed sector traded modestly weaker ahead of today’s set of USDA reports.

President Trump threatens that some government employees may lose their jobs if the government shuts down at midnight tonight, although that might also be a negotiating ploy. The Democrats continue to block a funding bill in the Senate that would keep the government open, with negotiations thus far yielding little if any progress toward a resolution. The government will go into a partial shutdown tonight at midnight if no resolution is found, and I believe we will see that shutdown. Democratic leaders yielded to Republicans when the last continuing resolution was before Congress, allowing the government to stay open. House and Senate Democratic leadership took a lot of heat from the activist side of their party for not using the shutdown threat to get more from Republicans. As such, I expect them to hold the line this time, yielding to activists within their party. We’ve seen both parties hold out to get what they want over the years. This time it’s the turn of the Democrats to do so, and I think they will.

What would a shutdown mean to the markets? The media is trying to make a big deal out of the shutdown, and it is a big deal to government workers who won’t get paid until the ordeal is over, or who lose their jobs. But it really means little to the economy, despite some of the stories in the media. The big 35-day shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019 cost the economy roughly $3 billion, or just 0.02% of GDP. The impact might be seen as bigger if President Trump uses the occasion to let government workers go, which would add to the unemployment numbers. The more aggressive estimate that I’ve seen there would be to push the unemployment rate to 4.7%, which is still at a historically low number. Yet, the markets will see that as further reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and I believe that the Fed would see it as such as well. Jobs numbers would also be expected to fall victim to a partial government shutdown. We would still expect to see the ADP private sector report, but weekly jobless claims and the monthly jobs report would likely not be released, depending on if the Trump Administration saw it as an essential service. Other government reports on the economy would also likely be suspended.

From a practical standpoint, a partial government shutdown would likely leave the agricultural markets without key crop data in the middle of this year’s harvest, leaving traders with uncertainty over the size of this year’s corn and soybean crops, making them lean more on private estimates. Those private estimates have thus far been pretty close to USDA numbers. Nonetheless, it would lead to some uncertainty in the markets, similar to what we saw in the October 2013 shutdown when we failed to get a timely October WASDE crop report that year as well. Weekly crop progress and export sales and inspections data would also be expected to come to a halt if we see a partial government shutdown.

Yet, today’s USDA reports will be released as scheduled, as they’re scheduled release comes ahead of tonight’s midnight deadline when funding runs out. USDA will release its final production numbers for small grains, like wheat, in today’s release. It will also release its quarterly stocks survey report that gives the quantities of the various grains and oilseeds in all positions as of September 1. That date coincides with the end of the first quarter for the wheat marketing year, while being the first date for the corn and soybean marketing years. The stocks survey provides a check on the accuracy of USDA’s monthly balance sheet projections. The quarterly stocks reports are known for their market moving surprises that often defy logic, but they are the numbers that the market will trade. Today’s reports will be followed by the release of StoneX’s customer survey for corn and soybean yields tomorrow afternoon, which will quickly refocus the markets on the size of this year’s crops.

The monsoon rains have begun in western Mato Grosso in Brazil, allowing for soybean planting to gain early momentum, while other areas of the highly productive Center-West region are seeing more scattered showers. Planting progress thus far remains at an above-average pace, but we’re still talking about single digit progress to this point. The pace tends to pick up speed once we turn the calendar to October. A shift in the weather toward a stronger more widespread monsoon rain pattern is needed, although forecasters remain cautiously optimistic that will occur by mid-October, which would still be in plenty of time to support production.

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