Perspective: Morning Commentary September 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 04 Sept 2025, 13:36

Today's Perspective Video: China & Courts Fight Back Against Trump Tariffs

September 4 – Stock futures were mixed again overnight, as they continue to consolidate just below recent record highs while absorbing this week’s job data ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%, after posting a fresh four-month low this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.60%, after doing the same. The broader commodity sector continues to have a soft start to trading in September, with both the energy and Ag commodities struggling to find firm footing.

The private sector added just 54K jobs in August, according to ADP, down from an upwardly revised 106K in July, and below analyst expectations of 68K jobs created. This again raises concerns for tomorrow’s government jobs report amid expectations that it will show a net 77K non-farm payroll jobs created in August, up slightly from 73K in July. This morning’s Challenger Job-Cut Report revealed that corporate announcements in August of “potential” layoffs totaled 85,979, up from 62,075 in July. That doesn’t mean that we’ll have that many layoffs, but it does reflect the extent of potential layoffs. Sometimes the desired reduction of the workforce is achieved through natural attrition, while other times a corporation may find that it doesn’t need to lay off as many as feared. Nonetheless, it shows an increased risk for the job sector.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 237K in the week ending August 30, up from 229K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 232K. The four-week moving average for first-time claims rose to 231K, up from 228.5K the previous week. Continuing claims in the week ending August 23 dropped by 4K to 1.940 million, after the previous week’s number was revised down by 10K. This puts the four-week moving average for continuing claims at 1.947 million, down 7K from the previous week. First-time claims for unemployment benefits filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending August 23 totaled 515, down 73 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending August 16 totaled 8,128, down 328 from the previous week.

The second reading of second quarter productivity data reveals that nonfarm productivity rose at an annualized rate of 3.3%, up from the 2.4% growth originally reported, and above analyst expectations that it would rise to 2.5%. That resulted then in a decline in unit labor costs to an annualized 1.0% growth pace, down from 1.6% originally reported. This suggests that firms found ways to be more productive with fewer workers in the second quarter, reducing wage inflation pressures in the process.

China harvested an estimated 140 million metric tons (5.14 billion bushels) of wheat this year, down slightly from 141 mmt the previous year. China typically purchases 50 – 60% of its wheat harvest to place into its reserve as a way to support prices, while theoretically providing price stability for farmers. Officials purchased 95.97 mmt of wheat for the reserve this year, which is up 47% from the previous year’s purchases of 65.07 mmt. The fact that the government has to purchase nearly 70% of the year’s production suggests that officials are worried about weak prices created by over-production. The government also implemented minimum purchase prices in major producing areas in order to support the cash market. The bottom line is that China has massive amounts of food-grade wheat flowing into the feed market due to low wheat prices created by the surplus production. This reduces demand for feed corn as we approach the 2025 harvest, with Chinese corn imports expected to suffer as a result. This brings back memories of the massive government storage program implemented in the United States in the 1980s that suppressed prices for years until those reserves eventually were absorbed. Basic economics tells us that production will continue to exceed demand when/if prices are supported at artificially elevated levels.

StoneX expects to release its September customer survey results this afternoon. The numbers are expected to provide some insight into the impact of adverse weather and disease on this year’s corn and soybean crops during the month of August. Our August survey revealed expectations that the corn and soybean crops will yield 188.1 and 53.6 bushels per acre respectively. I have not seen the data yet, but the general expectation of the industry is that the September results will be less than the August results, although opinions vary regarding the scope of the decline. Another private industry customer survey released on Wednesday pegged this year’s corn yield at 187.5 bpa, while the soybean crop came in at 53.3 bpa. Regardless of where our survey, or USDA’s objective survey, comes out, it’s generally believed that this year’s crops will be big, with the focus increasingly focused on trying to find enough space to store the crops, followed by demand expectations.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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