Perspective: Morning Commentary September 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 09 Sept 2025, 13:55

September 9 – Stock futures again moved quietly higher overnight, as traders anticipate key inflation data the next couple of days, ahead of next week’s big policy meeting with the Federal Reserve. Investors will also key on an anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics later this morning that is expected to revise this year’s job creation numbers notably lower. The VIX is trading near 15 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 97.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, which is just above yesterday’s five-month low, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.50%. Crude oil prices are trading 1% higher this morning, while the grain and oilseed sector saw modest losses overnight.

Analysts expect the government’s employment numbers for the year ending March 31 to be revised downward by as much as 400,000 to a million, or possibly more, later this morning. If verified, it would suggest that the jobs market was slowing long before President Trump initiated his tariff war. Today’s report comes on the heels of a job report this past Friday that showed that employment has basically stalled. The jobs numbers have increasingly come under scrutiny over the past couple of years, with analysts questioning their accuracy. Most notably, economists have pointed to the government’s birth-and-death model, which is something that the BLS uses to estimate the number of jobs that were gained or lost due to companies opening or closing in any given month, making them unavailable to be surveyed. The average monthly contribution of the birth-death factor has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, but other data shows that business openings have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, creating the disparity in the data. Regardless, today’s numbers are not expected to push the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate next week, because that cut is largely already baked into expectations.

The small business optimism index rose 0.5 points to 100.8 in August, which is roughly 3 points above the 52-year average of 98. The index is composed of 10 components – four of which increased, four decreased, and two were unchanged. However, the uncertainty index fell by 4 points to 93, although that is still well above the long-term average. Nonetheless, the uncertainty index fell due to more clarity about financing expectations and planned capital expenditures. Owners also reported stronger sales expectations in August, along with improved earnings. Labor quality remains the top concern of small businesses, as they continue to complain about the inability to fill vacancies with quality workers.

The BRICS coalition once again failed to come through for China. I wrote yesterday about the BRICS virtual meeting chaired by Brazilian President Lula, in which the group was expected to take a joint stand against Washington. Yet, Indian Prime Minister Modi skipped the meeting, as he continues to walk a fine line trying to keep both China’s Xi and U.S. President Trump happy. Lula also seemed to back down, softening his anti-Washington rhetoric as he faces severe tariffs from Trump. So, instead of focusing on coordinated direct countermeasures to the Trump tariffs, the group simply issued a statement on the need for multilateral significance, and for utilizing the United Nations in settling differences. As such, BRICS still lacks a clear roadmap, an actionable mechanism, and practical measures to achieve its vision.

The U.S. biofuel industry continues to wait for the Environmental Protection Agency to rule on a couple of key components of biofuel policy for 2026 & 2027. First, what will be the reallocation of granted small refinery exemptions, if any. The EPA has reportedly submitted a few alternatives for reallocation to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review. It’s anticipated that the review process will take a couple of weeks. It is then expected to go out for public comments for a period of time. As such, it’s looking doubtful now whether we will know the answer to the reallocation question prior to the end of October. Another related item will be whether the EPA sticks with its plan to offer 50% RIN credits for foreign feedstock. The possibility of a change in this policy combined with the reallocation questions continue to keep the industry in the uncertainty realm, with plants pulling back on production plans until more is known. On a related matter, three Republican refinery state Senators stated that they will introduce legislation intended to block the EPA from reallocating SREs, which could further complicate the matter, adding delays to any hopes that we might finally have certainty in our biofuel policy.

Traders continue to position for Friday’s big USDA WASDE crop report, which will contain the first corn and soybean production estimates based partially on actual field sampling. The average trade guesses going into the report reflect expectations that the corn and soybean yields will decline very modestly in this report, with corn falling 2.6 bushels to 186.2 bushels per acre, and soybeans falling 0.3 bushels to 53.3 bpa.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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