By: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Futures positioning across precious metals and crude oil is sending mixed signals. While gold and silver are attempting to stabilise after a recent pullback and copper continues to trend higher, COT data suggests that conviction among large speculators and asset managers remains limited. This divergence between price action and positioning raises questions over the durability of recent moves, particularly in metals, while oil markets remain more sensitive to geopolitical risk and supply constraints.
Source: CFTC (COT), NYMEX, COMMEX, ICE, LSEG
Source: CFTC (COT), NYMEX, COMMEX, ICE, LSEG
The Brent crude oil market arguably provides one of the clearest reads on how “well” relations between the US and Iran are evolving. While equity markets have adopted a more risk-on tone—on hopes that the worst of the conflict may be behind us—the oil market appears far less optimistic, with Brent holding around the $100 level and refusing to sell off materially.
There is little reason for a sustained decline while the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk. As long as this critical chokepoint is under threat, it seems likely that price action will remain choppy and volatile around current levels, with Iran effectively holding influence over roughly 20% of global oil supply.
Large speculators increased their net-long exposure by 8.2k contracts last week. This was driven primarily by a reduction in short positions (-8.2k contracts), resulting in a total net-short reduction of 16.3k contracts. With net positioning now at just -9.2k contracts, there is a strong likelihood that positioning could flip to net-long in the next COT report—unless there is a surprise breakthrough in US-Iran relations. At this stage, that appears unlikely.
A similar, though more muted, pattern was observed among managed money accounts. Net-long exposure increased by 3.2k contracts to 17k, with long positions rising by 1.2k and short positions falling by 2k.
Source: NYMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG
Momentum is turning higher for gold and silver following a two-week selloff, while copper continues to push higher and looks set to challenge a break above 6.5.
However, futures positioning does not fully support these moves. This raises the question of whether gains in gold and silver may be capped, or whether positioning data has become a less reliable indicator than earlier this year.
There is growing anecdotal evidence that some crypto traders have rotated into gold. This could help explain the divergence seen over the past 18 months, where gold prices continued to rise while bullish positioning lagged—even as prices pushed to record highs above 5,000. The volatility profile has also, at times, resembled that seen in bitcoin.
Net-long exposure to silver futures among managed funds has been trending higher alongside prices, although the pace has been relatively modest. A similar pattern is evident in copper, where net-long exposure is also gradually increasing.
Overall, this may point to a combination of lower participation from managed funds and large speculators, reducing the strength of signals derived from COT data. While positioning remains a useful indicator, it may not be fully capturing recent price dynamics.
That said, the flip side is that gold and silver could be vulnerable to a pullback if weaker hands are shaken out during another risk-off phase.
Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Gold's breakout has landed in a month that history has repeatedly favored, and the seasonal record stretching back to 2000 helps explain why. A closer look at August returns, win rates and how the calendar shifts into September shows where the seasonal edge is strongest and where it fades.
Silver's push above its summer range has less to do with supply and more to do with a single diplomatic thread. A potential U.S.-Iran deal has become the swing factor for a breakout that is far from confirmed.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
