By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 26 July 2023
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Although the markets have spent the past few weeks pricing in the likelihood that a rate hike in this week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could well be the last, gold rallied smartly, although briefly, last week when retail sales numbers for June, while up slightly month-month, were below market expectations. This fuelled the expectations about the near-ending of the Fed’s cycle (although opinions vary as to whether or when any rate cuts will be implemented) and once again the markets had a knee-jerk reaction. This took gold up to test two-month highs at $1,985 on a combination of fresh buying (some fundamental, some technical) and short covering. The momentum was lost thereafter and spot prices drifted gradually lower over the rest of the week to close more or less unchanged at $1,960.
Gold technical and dollar relationship, five-year view
Source: Bloomberg
The significance of this is that for once, gold has been prepared to react to the upside even though a supportive set of circumstances were already in the markets’ expectations. For much of the Fed’s hiking cycle the reaction was obviously the other way around as circumstances were different. In the background the escalation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine was also lending some support. We noted last week that the technical construction on gold’s charts was positive and this clearly helped the rally; but by the same token as the bullish momentum faded the technical picture changed and once the ten-day moving average had been crossed to the downside, the retreat from the highs accelerated. Later in the week, an unexpected decline in U.S. jobless numbers saw some renewed strength in the dollar and an uptick in bond yields (despite modest housing numbers) and selling reappeared in the gold market. To be fair, volumes were relatively thin, but nonetheless prices came back to where they had started.
The subtle change in sentiment also showed up briefly in Exchange Traded products, albeit only to a minor degree and the best way to describe the sentiment in these products is “mixed”. After relentless, if small-scale, selling throughout June and the first half of July, some light buying started to appear, although the overall balance of activity remains negative. Selling was swift to reappear into the price rally and will have helped to cap the move as well as filtering into the spot price as ETF shares were cancelled. The rally was on Tuesday, the day for which the Commitment of Traders numbers are logged; in the event the week’s changes were small, with just four tonnes of fresh longs and six tonnes of shorts.
On balance, then, some tentative support crept into the market last week, but – particularly ahead of this week’s Fed meeting - the tone remains cautious.
At the retail level, coin sales are still sluggish in both gold and silver, and premia remain under pressure.
The silver market itself is also still cautious. Gold’s move saw silver run up towards $25.25 during the week, with the ratio contracting slightly from 79.2 to 78.5 before widening again as silver retreated and the markets’ lack of conviction was illustrated by the fact that the rally in each metal was approximately 2%. Silver normally moves by twice as much as gold, so the fact that they were moving at parity testifies to the overall air of caution. Continued sluggishness in Chinese economic numbers, particularly trade, is affecting sentiment even though the solar power industry is still relatively robust.
China 70-Cities Housing Prices
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver Exchange Traded Products also reflect that market nervousness, with 421t coming out of the funds since the start of the month. While this is low tonnage it reflects market uncertainty, as did the change on COMEX, which in the week to last Tuesday encountered its fifth consecutive week of long liquidation and the third week of expanding shorts, taking the net long down to 884t, the lowest since early April and compared with a twelve-month average of 959t.
We now await any signals from the FOMC this week, but on past performance we can probably expect Jay Powell to leave himself room for manoeuvre in his Press Conference on Wednesday. There are growing signs of more disagreement within the Committee so we will probably need to read between the lines.
Gold and silver, five-year view
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
| 26 July 2023 | Previous week | % change | Year-to-date | Range Jan 2022 onwards | Range as % | ||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 1,960.60 | 1,953.70 | 0.35% | 6.37% | 1,628.75 | 2,048.45 | 25.77% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 24.73 | 24.77 | -0.16% | -0.66% | 17.77 | 26.03 | 46.45% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 961.00 | 977.00 | -1.64% | -11.18% | 838.00 | 1,128.00 | 34.61% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,298.00 | 1,267.00 | 2.45% | -27.69% | 1,200.00 | 2,315.00 | 92.92% |
| S&P 500 | 4,536.34 | 4,505.42 | 0.69% | 18.62% | 3,577.03 | 4,565.72 | 27.64% |
| $:€ | 1.1124 | 1.1228 | -0.93% | 4.28% | 0.9594 | 1.1236 | 17.11% |
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