By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 31st July 2023
Welcome to our newly re-branded entity ”StoneX Bullion”, which replaces the previous “CoinInvest” brand and which went live in mid-July. This ties in with our very successful US franchise and thus gives a seamless global product brand within the precious metals markets.
The website is
Last week was a busy one for U.S. indicators. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, and although Jay Powell’s prepared comments did not contain the reference that they had carried in June (i.e. “As I noted earlier, nearly, nearly all Committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year”), in his Press Conference he understandably kept the Fed’s room for manoeuvre. In response to questions he noted that the FOMC is still looking for more data on the broader picture, although most elements look to be going in the right direction due to restrictive policy – but also that it has not been restrictive enough for long enough to have its full desired effects. They are also looking for moderate growth, better balance in supply & demand throughout the economy, but especially labour – which is strong but gradually slowing; but also that core inflation is “still pretty elevated” and that policy must remain restrictive for quite a while.
Gold technical and dollar relationship, two-year view
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold barely responded to all this as it was more or less what was expected, but when it did respond to U.S. factors was the following day when the inflation and spending numbers were released. They raised some fears of further hikes and tipped gold lower with the selling accelerated by the severance of key moving averages; spot gold, which had previously been edging higher and testing $1,980, dropped smartly towards $1,950 before some fresh bargain hunting appeared.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (one of the Fed’s key parameters when framing policy) was actually slightly lower than the market consensus expectation, but at 4.1% year-on-year it still points to a prolonged period of restrictive policy.
As far as gold is concerned this is still likely to put a cap on fresh strength, barring exogenous shocks. Were the US economy to tip into a recession in partial response to continued restrictive policy then this would be supportive as it would generate concerns and uncertainty. Judging from the healthy personal spending numbers that were released at the same time as the PCE figures, that possibility currently looks relatively remote. This is backed up by the University of Michigan Sentiment Index, which is also closely watched; sentiment rose for the second month in succession, for the best reading since October 2021, with all components improving “considerably”, led by an 18% surge in long term business conditions and a 14% gain in short-run business conditions. The has been ascribed to “the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labour markets.”
So while there was a glimmer of positive sentiment in the gold market two weeks ago, we are more or less back to where we started and gold continues to consolidate between $1,950 and $1,980.
Silver is struggling to regain the $25 level and the latest economic news from Europe is not helping, although the stimulus programme in China did offer some respite last week. Consumer confidence remains deeply negative (although it was marginally better than in May), while economic confidence has softened slightly and industrial confidence (see chart ) has slid further. The latest Ifo industrial survey for Germany, Europe’s largest economy, suggests that manufacturing sentiment is still deteriorating, while the flash Purchasing Managers’ Index was at a three-year low, with manufacturers reducing purchases and inventories in the face of sliding demand.
Silver is posting a surplus this year that we currently estimate as equivalent to eight weeks’ global industrial demand and with investment demand still very anaemic there is little prospect of a fundamentally-driven rally without either gold changing gear or an improvement in base metal sentiment. Neither of which look particularly encouraging at the moment.
EU Industrial Confidence
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by twenty-five basis points, as expected, in the face of inflation that “continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long”. The Governing Council noted that “The developments since the last meeting support the expectation that inflation will drop further over the remainder of the year but will stay above target for an extended period. While some measures show signs of easing, underlying inflation remains high overall. The past rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully: financing conditions have tightened again and are increasingly dampening demand, which is an important factor in bringing inflation back to target”. That said, the markets’ reaction implies that they are expecting the ECB’s hiking cycle to draw to a close.
And this, of course, talks to metal demand.
In the investment environment: -
The latest CFTC figures, which relate to last Tuesday 25th July, when gold had slipped from testing $1,985 and was hovering around $1,960 and silver was slipping from testing $25.25, showed the following;
Money Managers on COMEX added long gold positions for the third successive week (by 72t or 19%) and reduced shorts by 30t or 23%, taking the net position to 359t from 256t. After a massive increase in longs the previous week, silver longs were trimmed by 908t or 11% while shorts expanded by 713t or 18%, taking the net long to 3,151t, down from 1,622t.
In the Exchange-Traded Products gold has suffered continued attrition. Since the start of June there have been just four days from a total of 42 in which there were any creations and tonnage has dropped by 80t or 3% to 3,393t (global mine production is ~3,700t). Silver has seen just 15 days of creation over the same period for a loss of 526t or 2% to 22,770 (global mine production is ~25,600t).
Gold and silver, five-year view
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
| 1 August 2023 | Previous week | % change | Year-to-date | Range Jan 2022 onwards | Range as % | ||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 1,960.60 | 1,953.70 | 0.35% | 6.37% | 1,628.75 | 2,048.45 | 25.77% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 24.73 | 24.77 | -0.16% | -0.66% | 17.77 | 26.03 | 46.45% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 961.00 | 977.00 | -1.64% | -11.18% | 838.00 | 1,128.00 | 34.61% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,298.00 | 1,267.00 | 2.45% | -27.69% | 1,200.00 | 2,315.00 | 92.92% |
| S&P 500 | 4,536.34 | 4,505.42 | 0.69% | 18.62% | 3,577.03 | 4,565.72 | 27.64% |
| $:€ | 1.1124 | 1.1228 | -0.93% | 4.28% | 0.9594 | 1.1236 | 17.11% |
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Platinum and palladium may sit in the precious metals family, but their biggest moves often come from industrial demand rather than safe-haven flows. Understanding that split explains why the two metals led the wider metals complex higher while gold and silver waited on very different news.
Gold has surged into a decade-long trendline, and the next U.S. CPI report now looms as the catalyst that could decide its direction. A hotter inflation print risks tipping an overbought market into a pullback, while a softer one could reopen the path toward record highs.
Nonfam weakness boosts metals
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
