By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
StoneX Precious Metals Weekly Front Desk Presentation
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia
Tel: +44 203 580 6115 / mobile +44 7384 833897
15 September 2025
StoneX Gold & Silver weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion
US fed funds rate – markets pricing in 106% chance of a cut next week and an 81% chance of 50 points by end-October
Source: Bloomberg
As reported last week: The latest Executive Order with partial respect to the metals markets, was signed on 5th September and clarifies the tariff numbers that are in the relevant Annex. These now include all the relevant tariff numbers that cover gold in unwrought and semi-manufactured form. We need to treat this with care because the wording in the Executive Order itself uses terms such as “I may be willing” to apply a zero rate, although we can be pretty sure that gold will be fine. Another element of uncertainty is that the Order refers to those countries with which the States already has reciprocal agreements in place. This is not currently the case with Switzerland so it is possible that the Swiss refineries may still have something of a headache.
Note also that silver and the PGM are on the zero-tariff list.
Silver still tight in London- and has been since the markets started worrying about tariffs
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P, gold and the dollar
The S&P, gold and copper
Gold, one-year view; new records in real and nominal terms
Gold:dollar correlation; easing again; now at-0.54
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver, one-year view; now overbought
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
US yield curve: steepening as the short end prices in rate cuts while the longer tenors are rising on fears of a longer-term inflationary impact; overall levels are lower, however
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
COMEX gold inventories, tonnes
Source CME via Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold:silver ratio, year to-date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t) –
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX
CFTC: - after some lively weeks Managed Money activity was extremely muted in the week to 9th September. Outright longs nudged higher by nine tonnes to 619t (1.4%)while shorts shed just two tonnes to 110t (2.2%). Silver was similarly quiet with long liquidation of 306t (1.7%) and a 157t (8.1%) gain in shorts.
ETF – more big gold gains last week; year-to-date net gain now exceeds 1,000t. Some profit taking in evidence
Gold: the latest figures from the World Gold Council, up to Friday 5th September, show another massive gain, this time of 34.9t in the week. Some 25.8t of this was in North America, with a 12.7t gain in Europe and a small loss in Asia of 1.82t. World gold mine production is 3,661t (Metals Focus figures). Globally 53.7t went in and 174.3t came out. Total holdings, 3691.5t, a year-to-date gain of 1,056.6t. Subsequent Bloomberg figures (not as extensive as WGC) suggest a couple of days of light profit taking for an additional change pf minus 1.45t.
Silver: The Bloomberg figures suggest that the net ETF creations in H1 2025 were 1,761t, of which 989t were in June. In other words, 56% of the net gains to that point were in one month. Looked at another way, on an unweighted annualised basis, June uptake would be equivalent to 11,864t, or the equivalent of five months’ silver mine production. There were net additions of 541t in July and a further 524t in August to a total of 25,070t, according to Bloomberg, but the first half of September has seen net redemptions of 332t to a total of 24,737980t for a year-to-date gain of 2,461t. World mine production is just less than 26,000t.
| 15 September 2025 | Previous week | % change | Year-to-date | Range Jan 2024 onwards | Range as % | ||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 3,651.10 | 3,594.55 | 1.57% | 37.97% | 1,985.10 | 3,651.10 | 83.93% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 42.26 | 40.75 | 3.72% | 43.69% | 22.09 | 42.26 | 91.35% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 1,399.00 | 1,392.00 | 0.50% | 51.90% | 920.00 | 1,474.00 | 60.22% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,218.00 | 1,130.00 | 7.79% | 32.25% | 852.00 | 1,297.00 | 52.23% |
| S&P 500 | 6,584.29 | 6,481.50 | 1.59% | 11.47% | 4,688.68 | 6,587.47 | 40.50% |
| $:€ | 1.1734 | 1.1717 | 0.15% | 12.74% | 1.0244 | 1.1806 | 15.25% |
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Gold's breakout has landed in a month that history has repeatedly favored, and the seasonal record stretching back to 2000 helps explain why. A closer look at August returns, win rates and how the calendar shifts into September shows where the seasonal edge is strongest and where it fades.
Silver's push above its summer range has less to do with supply and more to do with a single diplomatic thread. A potential U.S.-Iran deal has become the swing factor for a breakout that is far from confirmed.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
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