Strong export sales provide support for corn in Chicago; prices drop in South America
- Bullish
- Strong global demand;
- Exports remain solid in the United States;
- Expectations of reduced planted area in the U.S. in 2026;
- Robust Brazilian consumption.
- Bearish
- Increase in planted area for 2025/26 in Brazil;
- Record productivity in the U.S.;
- Higher ending stocks in the United States;
- Potential downward revision for U.S. corn consumption.
CBOT
Futures closed last week higher in the U.S. market, with March/26 settling at US¢429.25/bu (+1%).
Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - CBOT
Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.
After trading sideways during the first few days of the week, the market surged on Friday following the FAS announcement of export sales totaling 4 million tonnes (!) in the previous week. This marks the highest weekly volume since early 2021. This data positions U.S. corn export commitments significantly above the projections in the USDA's latest WASDE report. Nevertheless, the market remains well-supplied due to the large crop observed last year in the United States.
Looking ahead, U.S. corn is expected to remain highly competitive. However, the increasing competitiveness of the Argentine crop is starting to gain market attention.
Argentina
Despite the significant pressure following the WASDE report two weeks ago, U.S. corn is facing growing competition from Argentine corn in the eyes of international buyers.
The combination of a larger planted area and excellent early crop development has significantly lowered the cost of Argentine corn, making it the cheapest in the world in FOB terms in recent days.
Still, in recent weeks, many key production regions have experienced drier weather patterns, leading to a sharp decline in crop conditions, with the percentage rated good/excellent falling from 88% to 52% in a short period. Even so, this is a seasonal pattern, and this harvest remains one of the healthiest in recent years so far.
In the context of Brazil's diminishing share in the export market, Argentina's role is expected to grow in supplying the global market.
Argentina | Rainfall as % of historical average (last 30 days) Source: StoneX.
Argentina | Area rated good/excellent (%) Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires.
Argentina | Corn planted area (million hectares)
Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires.
Brazil
Domestic prices faced significant pressure last week. Beyond weak buying interest, likely due to relatively well-supplied short-term inventories, the market also reacted to a global weakening of the dollar, which reduced the competitiveness of Brazilian corn.
The March/26 contract closed the week at R$68.84/bag (-2.7%).
Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - B3
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.
Brazil
The Brazilian crop continues to develop adequately, and the start of planting for the safrinha season is proceeding relatively smoothly, keeping the market quiet in terms of impactful news capable of causing significant price movements.
Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/bag)
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.
Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)
Source: StoneX.
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