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Second Update: Colombia’s 2021 Coffee Production at 12.6 Million bags, Lowest Since 2014

By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

Second Update: Colombia’s 2021 Coffee Production at 12.6 Million bags, Lowest Since 2014

 
Author Full Name: Diana Delgado
Latin American editor
diana.delgado@stonex.com

Second Update: Colombia’s 2021 Coffee Production at 12.6 Million bags, Lowest Since 2014

(Adds analysts and comments throughout the story)

Coffee Network (Bogota) - Colombian coffee production fell below 13 million bags of 60-kg, the lowest level since 2014, according to figures from the coffee growers federation (FNC).
Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee producer, produced 12.6 million bags in 2021, down from 13.89 million bags in 2020, FNC said. The figure is the lowest since 2014 when Colombia produced 12.14 million bags.

The lower-than-expected output is attributed to two-month national strike and certainly on torrential rains for the past two years.

Some coffee growers in the Antioquia region, the country’s second largest- coffee producing province, had said that output was going to come lower than 13.5 million bags, but the production figure is sharply below what analysts had expected. Output is even lower than the 13 million- 13.5 million bag revised target of FNC for the full calendar year 2021.

In December, Colombia produced 1.385 million bags, down 21% from the 1.743 million in the previous year.

In the coffee year- October-December, coffee production fell 19% to 3.528 million bags on year.

Colombia has endured two consecutive years of strong rainfall. Rains were particularly strong in August-Mid December hit by the La Niña weather phenomenon, which merged with the country’s rainy season that happens in September-December.

La Niña is expected to pelt this Andean country until February or March, Colombia’s weather office Ideam said.

The sharply lower output is a sign that Colombia will find difficult to return to production levels of around 14 million bags as it recorded in 2015-2020, a coffee analyst, who remained anonymous said.

Lower output is also a sign that the 82,000 hectares renovated last year were not enough to maintain output at around 14 million bags. “Colombia needs to renovate around 100,000 hectares per year in order to maintain output at around 14 million bags,” said the coffee analyst. In 2010-2011, when Colombia endured a strong roya attack caused by La Niña, Colombia renovated a record of 112,000 hectares/year, said the analyst.

In addition, the lower output could likely reflect the non-accountability of smuggled beans from neighboring nations. Smuggled coffee most of the times is measured as locally produced coffee.

Finally, rains recorded in August through December 2021 will reflect a lower output in the 12-month period for the upcoming months, he added.

Meanwhile, coffee exports fell 1% to 12.4 million bags of 60-kg, down from 12.5 million bags in the previous year.

In December, Colombia exported 1.2 million bags, down 10% from 1.309 million on year.

The lower-than-expected output is one of the reasons why differentials of Colombian coffee prices (UGQ) over the New York coffee contract reached 50.7 c/lb on average in 2021, 15% more than the average 44.1d/lb in the previous year amid increased global demand for high-quality coffee, the Colombian coffee growers federation said.

By Diana Delgado

  

  • Coffee

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