By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Please remember that this is looking at the cost of one short ton of potash sitting in a barge at NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana). Your cost is not going to be the same. This should be looked at more in regards to the price direction rather than the actual pricing.
Global
It is amazing how quickly potash turned back into potash!
Global markets have been extremely quiet without much new to point to. Manufacturers appear to be comfortably sold and able to effectively sit back and relax until the next round of demand steps forward. That should allow them to keep prices elevated for the time being.
However, we do need to watch the Russia/Ukraine peace talks from a long term POV. There are potash production expansion projects that are still expected by the marketplace that are being delayed by the ongoing war. If peace were to be found, one would have to assume that these expansion projects would start in earnest.
Short term (i.e. next several months at least), we continue to believe that potash prices remain flat to higher as manufacturers are simply too comfortably sold to need to lower values.
Longer term (i.e. long enough I contemplated not writing this but still important), there is still enough new/expanded production projects out there that we expect potash to become very well supplied which has a calming/bearish effect on prices. Likely not something we will see now through next spring, but something to keep in the back of our minds.
North America
It is September. The start of fall application seasons (November) is not far away. If manufacturers needed to drop their price to bring demand forward, one would have thought it would have happened by now. That just does not seem to be the case.
At this point on the calendar, it is VERY hard to see potash values anything but flat to higher priced. Manufacturers/distributors appear very well sold and able to wait until fall demand steps forward.
Fall will be interesting. If there is a big November/December application run (our current expectation), the system will likely be emptied and suppliers be able to spend winter pointing to low inventories and spring just around the corner. However, on the flip side, if fall demand is bad and it causes the market to go into winter with healthy positions, it could have prices slip during the cold months.
Potash values decent vs grains but high phosphate values may hurt demand
When looking at current potash prices by themselves or against current grain values, it isn't bad and on its own there shouldn't be any cause for alarm in regards to fall application demand.
...but things are rarely viewed on their own.
When looking at the current potash vs December 2026 corn value, it gives us a rough ratio of 74 bushels per ton of potash. On the graph below, that is the black dotted line. It is certainly on the high side of what recent year "normal" values would be, but it is far better than what we have come to expect from both nitrogen and phosphate.
Therein lies the issue. A lot of farmers and retailers, when looking at potash, do not look at it alone. Many of the folks we work/talk with view their phosphate and potash as one application. It is rare to find someone who will apply their potash and then come in next season to do their phosphate. Who in their right mind would pay for 2 applications and deal with that much more compaction?!
That is where the 2nd graph below comes into play. That graph takes a 50/50 split between the phosphate/corn and potash/corn ratios and overlays that against historical values. Now, potash values we only have back to 2012 so it is possible that 2008 was worse than today, but I'm not sure that is the case. Still, when we look at that phosphate/potash combination, it is the worst that we have ever seen for this time of year. For farmers who are looking at their fall decisions, this will weigh large and could have some cutting back their potash demand just because phosphate demands it.
Obviously it is still too early to tell. It is one thing to say that application cuts will occur during the slower summer. It will be harder to hold to that approach as harvest begins and yield monitors in combines start showing large numbers. Big yields equal big nutrient removal. There will be operations who can mine the soil another season or two due to healthy applications in recent years, but not all will have that luxury.
We will find out in around 60 days...
What does this mean for farmers?
This is sort of two-fold.
On one side, let's assume there is large demand cut back because of the heightened ratios. In that case, even with potash values looking "ok", demand could be low enough to cause higher than expected inventory carryover into the winter. That ultimately could weigh on price ideas for a short time. Unfortunately, the lack of fall season could mean a massive spring demand run that could hurt worse. There is a reason the market has a normal fall/spring split.
On the other side, fall potash demand could be solid. This is our current POV. The "decent" potash price could be enough to offset the high phosphate price. Or, we could see farmers go heavy potash and light phosphate. This would cause fall ending inventories to be very low which would usher in stories of "there is not much time between the end of fall season and the start of spring. This lack of time weighs against the markets ability to get refilled.
For this, we are in a wait and watch mode. Farmers will get last say.
Could peace between Russia/Ukraine help increase global supplies?
Very long story short: yes!
There continue to be some Russian potash production expansions that are currently planned but as we understand, have been delayed due to the ongoing war with Ukraine. Seems that construction projects take a backseat when there is a war going on. That isn't great for near-term, but it does give us a chance to hold out hope for the future. If there can be peace between Russia and Ukraine that holds, we could see these expansion projects get started. This would give the global potash market another reason to doubt higher prices (increased supply + unchanged demand = lower values).
Then there is the Belarus POV. Remember during the lead up to Russia's invasion. Russia asked Belarus to give their troops access to the southern part of their country. This allowed their military to attack Kiev from the north and east. Their hope was that a two-front war would bring a swift end to the invasion. That allowance hurt Belarus more than I think they anticipated.
Belarus is landlocked and had been almost solely reliant on Lithuania to export their potash. The issue is that Lithuania sides with western nations and very quickly put things into law that effectively blocked any/all trade with Belarus and even went so far as to take any Belarusian assets within Lithuania. After this, Belarus couldn't ship potash south. Ukraine would never allow it. They couldn't go west as Poland was another western country who had no intention of helping. The only option was east through Russia but there was not enough logistics to keep up with normal exports so totals dropped.
Since that time, export flows from Belarus through Russia have improved but still mark a more difficult road. If there is peace between Russia and Ukraine, Russia could do its ally a favor and demand that Lithuania reopen transit lanes for Belarusian potash flows. I'm not going to act like I am a brilliant international political mind, but to get peace, this option could be on the table. Until that day comes, Belarusian potash is going to struggle through unnatural routes to access the world.
What does this mean for farmers?
If there is peace between Russia/Ukraine and it includes the allowance of Belarusian potash through Lithuania, it could usher in a softer market. Even if it does not increase overall supplies, there is a possibility that a small step back to normal could put more minds at ease.
NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana
Vs 30 days ago --6% or approximately $20 lower
Vs 90 days ago - 6% or approximately $20 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 10% or approximately $30 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 24% or approximately $65 higher
U.S. Midwest Average (average of several points across the Midwest)
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $4 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 2% or approximately $8 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 9% or approximately $33 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 9% or approximately $31 higher
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES MAY LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA potash price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
StoneX Ratio Calculation
The ratio calculation is derived from Bloomberg historical grains values as well as fertilizer values from StoneX, NPKFAS, and Argus.
The calculation is simply dividing the fertilizer price by each grain price.
All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A corn rally has left fertilizer values sitting near the cheap end of their multi-year range, and that gap is closing from the bottom up rather than the top down. Josh Linville traces how farmer buying, retailer restocking and manufacturer pricing combine to end an affordability window, and why phosphate has almost no room to fall.
India's tender absorbed 1.7 million tonnes of urea with little resistance, and the granular tonnes it pushed aside still need a destination. Brazil's September through December import period is now where the global market finds its next direction.
Russian fertilizer exports have concentrated into the Baltic after the Black Sea and Ukrainian routes closed, and Ukraine has now shown it can reach those ports. Phosphate is the input most exposed, because producing it depends on imported ammonia and sulfur that travel the same disrupted corridors.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
