Shipping Disruptions Continue to Reshape Coffee Logistics in 2026

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Mon, 27 Apr 2026, 15:08

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Global shipping conditions remain one of the most destabilizing variables in the coffee market, even as production forecasts improve. While no single event has halted coffee trade outright in recent weeks, a combination of geopolitical risk, rerouting decisions by container lines, fuel costs, and port congestion is continuing to raise costs, extend transit times, and complicate execution for exporters and importers alike.

At the center of the current disruption is the ongoing closure and partial restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, following the escalation of conflict involving Iran earlier this year. Although a ceasefire was announced in early April, ocean carriers have largely maintained their avoidance policies, citing security and insurance constraints. As a result, the strait remains effectively closed for most containerized commercial traffic, with fewer than a handful of container vessels attempting passage. Analysts estimate that global spot ocean freight rates have risen roughly 30–40% since late February, even on trade lanes with no direct Middle East exposure, illustrating how deeply interconnected global shipping networks have become.

Oil and bunker fuel costs have played a central role in this escalation. With the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, the conflict has driven volatility across energy markets, prompting shipping lines to introduce emergency bunker surcharges, war‑risk premiums, and general rate increases across multiple routes. These additional costs are being passed down the supply chain, directly increasing the landed cost of coffee into Europe, the United States, and Asia.

Routing decisions by major carriers are compounding the problem. Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag‑Lloyd have continued to divert select Asia–Europe and Gulf‑linked services around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing both the Red Sea and Hormuz. These detours add 25 to 30 days to end‑to‑end transit times, stretching voyages that typically last just over a month into journeys approaching two months in some cases. Even shipments that do not originate in Asia are feeling secondary effects, as vessel capacity is redeployed and schedules become increasingly fragile.

Port congestion is emerging as a second‑order consequence. Transshipment hubs such as Singapore, Port Klang, and Nhava Sheva are absorbing irregular vessel arrivals as rerouted ships miss original berthing windows. This has disrupted feeder connections into Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, which are critical routes for coffee shipments from origins such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and East Africa. Industry data show schedule reliability falling well below pre‑crisis norms, forcing exporters and traders to build additional buffer time into contracts and inventory planning.

For coffee exporters, the impact is being felt unevenly by origin. In Brazil, logistics challenges persist alongside seasonal export slowdowns. According to Cecafé, Brazilian coffee exports fell more than 21% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, with the industry citing port bottlenecks, vessel delays, and higher freight costs as contributing factors. While some of the weakness reflects the inter‑harvest period, exporters continue to report higher detention, demurrage, and storage costs, particularly at the Port of Santos, which remains chronically congested.

These operational constraints have tangible market consequences. Lower physical flow during a period of otherwise bearish price sentiment has contributed to near‑term tightness in certain destinations, even as longer‑term supply outlooks remain comfortable. In practical terms, this means exporters face rising execution risk just as prices soften, eroding margins and complicating hedging strategies.

Importers and roasters are responding cautiously. Many buyers are extending coverage cycles, spacing deliveries more evenly, and favoring suppliers with stronger logistics visibility rather than chasing marginal price advantages. Some are shifting portions of supply toward origins with more reliable sailings or better access to alternative ports, while others are building higher working stocks to compensate for extended transit times and unpredictable arrival windows.

The regulatory landscape is adding another layer of strain. In Europe, shipping complexity is intersecting with preparations for the EU Deforestation Regulation, increasing documentation requirements and elevating the risk of shipment holds at destination if paperwork is incomplete. In logistics hubs such as Jebel Ali and European transshipment ports, importers are quietly warning that compliance‑related delays could become costly if combined with already stretched shipping schedules later this year.

For now, the shipping environment can best be described as fragile rather than broken. Volumes are still moving, but at higher cost, with less predictability and thinner margins across the chain. In a market increasingly focused on surplus production and declining prices, logistics remain one of the few areas capable of re‑injecting risk premium—less through outright shortages and more through friction, delay, and uncertainty.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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