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Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Even with recovery late in the week, soybean closes lower
 
Ana Luiza Lodi
analuiza.lodi@stonex.com
Market continues to monitor US exports, while supply is more comfortable
 
Bearish factors
  • Record area and production estimate in Brazil;
  • Sluggish US export sales;
  • Even lower shipment in the Gulf region after hurricane Ida;
  • Harvest progresses in the US with good production prospects.
Bullish factors
  • Possibility of a new La Niña;
  • US balance still does not suggest loose stocks;
  • Crushing margin in recovery in China.
 

 

Soybean quotes in Chicago started last week lower, once again influenced by the soybean oil market, which has been a constant in recent months. The Oil Share dropped lower again, weighing on the grain on Monday (11).

Moreover, concerns about the pace of US export sales continue, with few announcements in USDA daily reports compared to the same period of the previous year.
 

Weekly Intraday - November/21 (CME)        
image 19976
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
image 19977
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Tuesday brought a strong move lower for soybean on the CBOT, with the release of the October supply and demand report. The USDA revised productivity for the 2021/22 US crop to 3.46 tonnes per hectare and production rose to a record of 121 million tonnes, 2 million more September’s figure.

This increased availability was further reinforced by the higher stocks of the 2020/21 crop, at 6.97 million tonnes, which had already been released in the stocks position report on September 30. 

It is noteworthy that, for the time being, estimated world production for the 2021/22 cycle is 7.87 million tonnes above consumption, contributing to an increase in stocks.

Late in the afternoon, the USDA crop progress report showed that 59% of US crops were in good/excellent conditions, exceeding market expectations, which were aiming for a sustained 58% G/E. Once again, it was the most central states of the belt that led to this improvement. Harvesting reached 49%, against an average of 40% for the same period of the year.

On Wednesday, soybeans closed in the negative field, influenced by the corn market. On the other hand, the Oil Share rally minimized the beans downward movement. Palm oil’s increase was a feature, influencing the vegetable oil market as prospects point to heated demand.

Export sales from the US to China were recorded again, in a volume of 300,000 tonnes, with another 198,000 to unknown destinations.

Also on China, the nation’s soybean exports in September reached 6.88 million tonnes, 30% below the same period in 2020. Even so, in 2020/21 (Oct-Sept), accumulated Chinese imports totaled 99.8 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA estimate, which is 99 million tonnes.

Thursday brought some recovery for soybean prices in Chicago, after about two weeks in a downward trend. The market underwent a correction move, following the strong recent sales movement.

It is also noteworthy that more US soybean sales to China were recorded in the daily follow-up made by the USDA.
 

Weekly US export sales - 2021/22     
image 19978
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.
On Friday, soybean continued the shortcovering movement already observed on the previous day.
US export sales for the week ending 10/07 reached 1.15 million tonnes, falling within estimates, which ranged from 600,000 to 1.4 million tonnes. The traded volumes remain considerably lower than those recorded in the same period of 2020, when sales reached 2.6 million tonnes. In accumulated terms, 26.4 million tonnes of 2021/22 soybean have already been sold, compared to 43.3 million tonnes at the same time last year.
The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) released US crushing for September, which stood at 4.19 million tonnes, below market expectations of 4.22 million.
 

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

image 19979
 
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
 
BRAZIL
image 19984
 
UNITED STATES
 
image 19985
 

CHINA AND EU

image 19986
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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