StoneX logo
Contact us

Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Add us as preferred source on Google
Crop losses in Argentina support soybean prices in Chicago 
 
Ana Luiza Lodi
analuiza.lodi@stonex.com
 
On the other hand, the pace of Chinese demand can counterbalance production losses 
 
Bearish drivers 

  • World 2022/23 production estimated above consumption; 

  • Fighting inflation can generate recession; 

  • Possibility of record production in Brazil; 

  • COVID-19 rising in China and signs of economic slowdown. 

 
Bullish drivers 

  • Weather concerns for the 2022/23 crop in South America, already with production cuts in Brazil; 

  • Relaxation of anti-COVID measures in China; 

  • Delayed soybean planting in Argentina and crop cuts; 

  • Increase of mandatory biodiesel blend in Brazil, from April 2023. 

Last week, soybean prices rallied in Chicago, with the March contract ending Friday (13) at 1527.75 cents per bushel. In addition to concerns about the South American crop, the release of the USDA report stands out. 

The US Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply and demand report, always awaited, but with special emphasis on the review of the US crop, which takes place in January. There was a cut of almost 2 million tonnes in the country's production, from 118.27 million to 116.38 million tonnes. This decline was motivated by a small reduction in the harvested area, but mainly by the fall in average productivity, from 3.38 to 3.33 tonnes per hectare. Even so, it is noteworthy that the estimated final stocks fell marginally, staying at 5.72 tonnes per hectare, since there were cuts on the demand side, especially the expected exports, which went from 55.66 to 54.16 million tonnes. 

For the South American crop, the USDA increased Brazilian production by 1 million tonnes, reaching 153 million. It should be noted that, with this adjustment, the Department was well in line with the revised data from CONAB. Also on Thursday, CONAB updated its crop survey, reducing Brazilian production from 153.48 to 152.71 million tonnes, in the face of a small cut in national average productivity due to the lack of rainfall in areas of southern Brazil. 

In the case of Argentina, the USDA decreased soybean production by 4 million tonnes, staying at 45.5 million tonnes, a situation that should directly impact the country’s grain shipments, which already tend to be low, with the focus being on exporting meal and oil. Even with this cut, the USDA number is still considerably higher than that of Argentine exchanges, which also made revisions in their estimates. The Rosario Exchange brought the most aggressive adjustment, with a reduction of 12 million tonnes in 2022/23 soybean production in the country, which would be at 37 million tonnes. The Buenos Aires Exchange also made a significant cut of 7 million tonnes, with the expected production reaching 41 million tonnes. In addition to the adverse impacts of lack of rainfall in the country, the Buenos Aires Exchange made a cut of 500,000 hectares in planted area, going to 16.2 million, as a result of the losses recorded due to very high temperatures and the end of the planting window in center regions of the country’s agricultural area. 

This smaller Argentine production, although there are still doubts about what the size of the crop will be, begins to raise concern about the global soybean supply and demand balance, highlighting that there is already a more significant movement of imports of Brazilian soybeans by Argentina. With this, Chinese demand should still be at the center of attention. 

Weekly intraday—March/23 (CME)     

image-20230116205620-1
Source: CME. Design: StoneX. 
image-20230116205637-2
Source: CME. Design: StoneX. 

There are concerns about the rate of imports from China, as the country’s economy has shown signs of slowdown and still feels the impacts of the COVID-zero policy, even with the relaxation of measures. The USDA has reduced the Chinese 2022/23 import estimate to 96 million tonnes, a decline of 2 million compared to the previous number. However, in December the country imported 10.56 million tonnes of soybean, the highest volume since June 2021. 

Even with this reaction in the last month of 2022, the year’s total stood at 91.1 million, a level lower than that recorded in the previous calendar year, at 96.6 million. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the country’s meal stocks remain low, which would tend to encourage the grain’s import and crushing, especially after the relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures. However, animal husbandry is not advancing as expected after recovery from the African swine fever, and feed compositions with less soybean meal use have been adopted. 

Therefore, a possibly weaker Chinese demand could alleviate the tight global supply and demand balance resulting from crop losses in Argentina. As such, although the weather and lower production in South America are major bullish factors for prices, since soybean production is extremely concentrated in Brazil, the US and Argentina, demand, which is also very concentrated, will define the soybean balance. 

This scenario of doubts about Chinese demand is also related to the reduction of US exports, mentioned earlier. US soybean shipments for 2022/23 reached 29.7 million tonnes by January 5, about 2 million less than a year ago. 

On the other hand, US soybean sales are stronger than last year, reaching 44.4 million tonnes, compared to 42.4 million. And China is responsible for this positive difference, having bought 2.7 million tonnes more than in the same period a year earlier. In the week ending January 05, net sales of the 2022/23 US crop stood at 717,400 tonnes, within the range of estimates going from 500,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. 

Weekly US export sales (000 tonnes) 

image-20230116205713-3
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX. 

This week, the weather will continue to be key in South America, with forecasts indicating that Argentina should receive little rain and high temperatures, a situation that can further worsen the conditions of the country’s crops.  

 
SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag) 
image-20230116205742-4
 
image 35317
 
 
 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.