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Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Soybeans fall again in Chicago, even with losses in Argentina 
 
Ana Luiza Lodi
analuiza.lodi@stonex.com
 
 Concerns about the demand side end up weighing on prices  
 
Bearish drivers
  • Estimated global production for 2022/23 above consumption, according to USDA; 

  • Combating inflation may lead to a recession; 

  • Possibility of an absolute production record in Brazil; 

  • Signs of economic slowdown in China and and increased outbreaks of ASF; 

  • Agricultural Forum shows production growth for 2023/24 in the US.

 
Bullish drivers
  • Relaxation of anti-Covid measures in China; 

  • Considerable crop losses in Argentina due to the climate; 

  • US 23/24 crop area not expected to grow and stocks in March 1 indicate strong use;
  • Increase in mandatory biodiesel blending in Brazil, starting in April 2023.

Soybean prices recorded losses again last week in Chicago, with the contract for May ending Thursday (6) at 1492.50 cents per bushel, as on Friday (7) the market was closed due to the Good Friday holiday. 

The progress of the Argentine crop continues to be closely monitored, but even with estimated losses of almost 50% of soybean production in the 2022/23 cycle, soybean prices have not found lasting support. In addition to the Brazilian crop being confirmed as an absolute record, there are concerns on the demand side, given the weaker economic performance around the world, including China, which is the largest soybean consumer and importer. 

In any case, in its last weekly report, released last Thursday, the Buenos Aires exchange (BCBA) indicated that the Argentine soybean harvest reached 2.8% of the total area, with an average productivity of up to 1.48 tonnes per hectare at the moment. Despite still being at the beginning, the BCBA maintains its estimate for the country's production, at 25 million tonnes. 

In addition, the BCBA does not rule out further updates to its crop number, since what was planted later (second soybean) is still going through key stages of development. 

In Brazil, the advance of the soybean harvest, which reached 82.1% of the total last Thursday according to StoneX's monitoring, has shown excellent productivity, or even records, in a large part of the country. 

Given this scenario, in its April review, StoneX considerably increased its estimate for Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23, which stood at 157.7 million tonnes, 3 million above the previous number. 

Again, this higher national production comes even with the negative adjustment of the crop in Rio Grande do Sul, which dropped to 15 million tonnes (due to weather issues). On the other hand, as highlighted, the results in other producing states have been surprising, such as in the Midwest, in MATOPIPA (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Pará), in São Paulo, and Paraná. Furthermore, there were also positive adjustments to the planted area, which took Brazil's total to a record 44.17 million hectares. 

Weekly intraday - May/23 (CME)    

 
image-20230410182636-1
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
image-20230410182642-2
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

As such, Brazil has full capacity to cope with a growth in domestic demand and exports. In the case of foreign sales, expectations are that Argentina will buy significant volumes of soybeans from Brazil, in order to keep its crushing complex working. Even so, our neighbor should lose space in world exports of meal and oil, amid a much smaller domestic supply. 

Meanwhile, it should be noted that Brazilian soybean exports are gaining strength, with the country having shipped 13.2 million tonnes in March, a volume above the 12.1 million exported in the same month of 2022. January is still weaker, reaching 19.1 million tonnes, against 20.9 million in the same period last year. In the coming months, shipments of Brazilian soybeans should gain even more strength, possibly reaching monthly records. Ship lineup data, updated on April 5, indicated that soybean exports scheduled for April already exceeded 11 million tonnes, added to the 1.34 million that had already left the ports, with this volume still able to grow. 

On the other hand, in the US, net export sales of soybeans for the 2022/23 crop in the week ended March 30 were 155,300 tonnes, a volume below the floor of market estimates, which ranged from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. In accumulated terms, 49.9 million tonnes of soybeans were traded, against 56 million at the same time last year. Shipments totaled 45 million tonnes up March 30, slightly above the registered a year earlier, around 44 million tonnes. 

US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)

 
image-20230410182649-3
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.
This week, the USDA's Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) and Conab's Crop Survey are the highlighted publications. In the case of WASDE, data for the new crop (2023/24) will not yet be released, but adjustments for the 2022/23 cycle should still occur, such as production in South America and the US balance sheet, which should incorporate the information of the quarterly stocks position report. 
 
SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)
image-20230410182656-4
 
image 35317
 
 
 
 
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