By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
Combating inflation may lead to a recession;
Absolute production record in Brazil and lack of storage;
Signs of economic slowdown in China and and increased outbreaks of ASF;
Chances of El Niño increase.
Considerable crop losses in Argentina due to the climate;
In the last week of April, soybean prices in Chicago were under more pressure, with the May/23 contract ending Friday (28) at 1445.25 cents per bushel. On May 1, a public holiday in Brazil, soybeans closed the main trading session higher on the CBOT, but also without major news on the fundamentals side, in a session of low trading volumes.
The lack of new threats on the supply side, while there are doubts related to demand, has not left much room for considerable gains in soybean prices in Chicago.
The harvest of the Argentine soybean crop reached 28.2% last Wednesday (26), according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), with an average yield of 1.59 tonnes per hectare registered so far.
Even with the BCBA estimate already being at 22.5 million tonnes, less than half of the 48 million estimated at the beginning of the cycle, further cuts are not ruled out, since very poor yields continue to be reported, in addition to the possibility of greater area abandonment.
Only 3% of soybean crops in the country are in good/excellent condition. At the same time that the Argentine crop is at risk of losing even more productive potential, the harvest of the Brazilian crop has already exceeded 95% of the national average, according to StoneX, which reduces the possibility of further adjustments in the 2022/23 estimate, currently at 157.7 million tonnes. Even though this is a historic record, were it not for the losses in Rio Grande do Sul, the Brazilian soybean crop could have exceeded 160 million tonnes. Several states reached productivity records.
With this, the availability of Brazilian soybeans is very high, a situation that continues to weigh on premiums, bearing in mind that there is a lack of storage capacity. Despite the number of units and static volume increasing year by year, production of grains (soybeans and corn) has advanced more quickly. According to data from Conab, Brazil's static capacity grew by 6.4% in the last year, while StoneX estimates an increase in combined soybean and corn production by more than 15% in the 2022/23 cycle.
Weekly intraday - May/23 (CME)
On the demand side, in addition to concerns about economic performance as a whole, the market is keeping an eye on Chinese consumption. Even after the country eased the very strict measures to combat COVID-19, soybean crushing margins are under great pressure, often in the red, which raises concerns regarding consumption and imports. For now, Chinese soybean imports are stronger than last year.
In Brazil, the official shipments figures for April will be updated on Tuesday (2), with estimates that they could reach the level of 15 million tonnes. Ship lineup data indicates around 13.5 million.
In the USA, export sales in the week ended April 20 reached 311,250 tonnes, a volume within market expectations, between 75,000 and 500,000. In accumulated terms, 50.6 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2022/23 crop were traded, with the USDA estimating that shipments by the end of August will reach 54.8 million.
US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)
Regarding soybean co-products, a highlight was the news that Indonesia will reduce mandatory quotas for palm oil sales on the domestic market, which weighed on vegetable oils, including soybean oil. This measure should increase the oil available for export.
On Monday (1), soybeans ended higher, even with the good prospects for the US crop, in a year that should be an El Niño, which tends to be positive for US grain production.
US soybean planting reached 19% of the total on Sunday (30), above the five-year average for the period (11%) and the amount seen at the same time last year (7%). Years during which the US crop is planted earlier tend to be positive for the final production result.
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