Daily Coffee Report 6/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Starbucks Losing Share in US Market Despite Firm Demand
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - U.S. coffee demand remains historically strong, yet spending is spreading across more brands, pressuring Starbucks’ share while emerging drive‑thru and value players notch gains. On the supply side, Brazil’s favorable weather has eased arabica futures from 2025 highs, even as import costs and consumer‑level coffee inflation remain elevated versus overall CPI. U.S. green coffee import values surged through 2025, with signs of late‑year price moderation that could relieve retail pressure later in 2026.
Starbucks remains the U.S. market leader by a wide margin, but its share of coffee‑shop spending fell to ~48% in 2024–2025, down from 52% in 2023, according to Technomic figures cited in AP and multiple outlets. Dunkin’ gained share over the same period, while Dutch Bros, Scooter’s Coffee, and 7 Brew accelerated expansion, and Chinese entrants Luckin and Mixue began testing major U.S. markets—collectively fragmenting spend that previously concentrated at Starbucks.
Scale still favors Starbucks—nearly 17,000 U.S. units and hundreds more planned—but analysts caution it’s a mature, saturated business facing nimble competitors with lower tickets and heavy promotions. Morningstar‑quoted averages underscore price positioning (Starbucks $9.34 avg check vs $8.44 at Dutch Bros and $4.68 at Dunkin’), while drive‑thru specialists win on speed and convenience. Starbucks is responding with store redesigns, 25,000 added seats, and a compact “Ristretto” format to capture urban and throughput‑constrained sites.
Arabica futures eased into early February as above‑average rains in Brazil’s Minas Gerais supported cherry fill and improved 2026 harvest prospects; arabica hovered near $3.35/lb on Feb 2, off multi‑month highs, while robusta softened on rising Vietnam shipments. Still, day‑to‑day action remains choppy on positioning and currency moves.
Trade press and data dashboards show arabica off roughly 6–7% month‑over‑month heading into Feb 2, reflecting a more comfortable near‑term supply outlook versus 2025’s weather‑tightened backdrop. That said, inventories are rebuilding only gradually and forward sales in Brazil remain subdued relative to historical averages—keeping an eye on currency, export pace, and Conab updates is prudent for roasters pricing spring and summer contracts.
At retail, coffee inflation outpaced overall CPI. Using BLS‑based series, the average price for a pound of ground roast coffee rose ~6.98% from 2025 to 2026 (e.g., $2.83 → $3.03 for a standard item), compared to just 0.66% for the overall basket over the same period. In late 2025, however, monthly average price slipped to $9.053/lb in December (‑2.2% vs. November), a hint that the peak pressure may be easing at the shelf.
Zooming out, USDA’s Food Price Outlook shows all‑food CPI +3.1% YoY in Dec 2025, with food‑at‑home +2.4% and food‑away‑from‑home +4.1%. For cafés, that latter figure matters: labor, rent, and menu inputs (including milk and syrups) continue to push up prepared beverage prices even if green coffee inputs show some relief. USDA projects 2026 all‑food inflation 3.0%, FAFH +4.6%, implying continued pricing pressure for beverage‑led QSRs and specialty cafés.
The U.S.—a negligible producer domestically—leaned hard on imports in 2024–2025. Trade trackers estimate $6.31B in green coffee imports in 2024 (+11% YoY), with Jan–Sep 2025 already at $7.78B, far ahead of 2024’s total value as roasters restocked and hedged against volatility. Volume estimates show 1.33–1.35 MMT in 2024 22–23 million 60‑kg bags)—a 5–6% YoY climb—consistent with other analyses citing 1.26 MMT (+7.0% YoY). The direction is unambiguous: imports rose sharply in both value and volume.
Import cost indices corroborate the squeeze: the U.S. Green Coffee Import Index stood at 277.40 in Sept 2025, up 32% YoY (209.90 in Sept 2024), but down modestly month‑to‑month from August—mirroring the late‑year cooling evident in retail averages. Market commentary notes BLS import prices up 22.9% YoY in 2025, yet declining sequentially since June, suggesting stabilization into year‑end—a constructive sign for roasters’ COGS in 1H26 if origin weather cooperates.
For a global lens, USDA/FAS projects world ending stocks still tight in 2025/26 even as Brazil’s output recovers and Ethiopia posts records—supporting a cautious, not bearish, stance on medium‑term price risk.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 6/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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