USDA Report Estimates - June 2026
USDA Grain S&D Report - Trade Estimates for the monthly publication
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
StoneX Commodity Index Market Report
By: Joe Zhu, Project Manager - Market Intelligence
StoneX Commodity Index Market Report February 2026
Note: A new report format is currently under development and will be rolled out in a more mature version over the coming months.
Commodities started 2026 with a strong risk-on rally. The StoneX Commodity Tracker (broad commodity performance) rose 10.2% MoM in January, materially outperforming equities (S&P 500 gaind 1.2%), as U.S. winter weather, geopolitical risk premia, and heavy investor positioning/flows into hard assets drove broad gains. However, late-January volatility increased sharply, with a rapid reversal in precious metals and a pullback in crude after tensions appeared to ease.
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Energy led January performance, +17.2% MoM (also YTD). The complex was supported by (1) geopolitical headlines as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated pushed crude risk premia higher into late January, and (2) severe cold weather that tightened near-term U.S. natural gas balances.
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Precious metals gained +9.1% MoM, with silver and platinum outperforming for most of the month. Into the end of January, positioning became crowded and volatility spiked after President Trump’s Jan 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair (pending confirmation), triggering a sharp repricing in rates/USD expectations and a rapid metals drawdown.
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Industrial metals, livestock, grains & oilseeds also posted gains (broadly constructive macro sentiment and improved risk appetite).
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Softs were the outlier, down 8.4% MoM, driven primarily by cocoa (-30.8% MoM) as demand concerns and improved supply expectations weighed heavily.
Commodity ETFs: flows stayed strong, but choppier into month-end. The top 95 commodity ETFs drew ~$30B net inflows in January, taking 12-month cumulative inflows to ~$114B. Flows were dominated by precious metals demand, though outflows emerged in the final days of the month alongside the metals drawdown.
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Gold and silver led: GLD and SLV were the primary winners in January.
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Energy ETFs saw net withdrawals, especially natural gas. KOLD (short NG) saw strong inflows, likely positioning for a mean reversion once weather normalizes.
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Broad commodity ETFs added +$593M in January and +$2.8B over the last 12 months.
Top 10 Commodity ETF Inflows/Outflows during January 2026: 
Top Inflow/Outflows in Commodity ETFs by Database Category during January 2026: 
Futures + swaps activity
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$23.8B entered futures (CFTC managed money proxy), alongside ~$20.8B of newly initiated DTCC commodity index swaps (near the record observed in Jan 2025).
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Activity remained concentrated in broad index exposures (GSCI/BCOM) plus single-commodity interest (notably Brent and Gold).
In the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders release (data through Jan 27, 2026), overall positioning across agricultural markets continued to evolve with notable dispersion across grains and softs.
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Net index-related exposure in agriculture was modestly higher (+2.2%MoM), but week-to-week momentum softened (shorts rising and long accumulation slowing in some contracts).
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Within grains, positioning divergence persisted: corn supportive vs. soy complex softer (more shorts / fewer longs), consistent with the cross-commodity dispersion seen in January.
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In softs, cocoa positioning remained a key focus as prices re-rated sharply lower on demand concerns.
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
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Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
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