Token Trends - $100k BTC, HYPE Airdrop, and NFTs Return?
Executive Summary
- Market trading color: History; Bitcoin hits 100k, 2017 alts lead the way, ETH ETFs seeing significant inflows, momentum continues in Washington with the nomination of Atkins
- Theme of the week – Analyzing airdrop strategies, tokenomics, and NFTs' resurgence amid market challenges and opportunities
- Sector commentary: Bitcoin and Ethereum active; altcoins surge; ETFs gain inflows; institutions invest; NFT startup RTFKT shuts down
Market Trading Color (Nolan Aibel)
Historic week for Bitcoin and the digital asset market. A week that began with popular 2017 alt coins catching a second wind to Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 milestone. Having been in the space for years, we believed this day would come, however, it still feels surreal typing it.
We’ll start with the alt space. We like to refrain from using the same charts repeatedly in our updates but this one has played out almost too well. We first flagged this chart below 25, then last week slightly above 50, now we’re seeing a full bloom alt season with this chart screening 84/100. What has been most interesting is alt tokens seeing the largest bids in the past week haven’t been the shiny new L1s and tech, it’s been tokens that retail first accumulated back in the 2017 bull run. These include $IOTA +122%, $HBAR +119%, $CRV +119%, $JASMY +90% and $VET +72%. We believe this is the first wave and once old retail players recognize gains, and more onboard, this money will flow down the market cap. We do want to flag funding rates as they are reaching dangerously elevated levels across the board. Though in past cycles, rates of this high nature could stay elevated for some time.
Source: blockchaincenter.net, Coinglass
On to Bitcoin – truly a historic day. In 4 trading days the BTC ETF products have seen over $1.9B in inflows. We believe now that Bitcoin was able to break through the $100,000 hurdle, it should find a home here above the level as we head into the new year. While we noted leverage being high above, this rise in price has been largely driven by spot buying. This is showcased in the below chart with the Coinbase premium increasing significantly. ETH hasn’t taken too far of a backseat. While not signaling an all-time high at $4,000, ETH breaking through this level should open the flood gates and only continue increase sentiment. ETH ETFs have taken in $655M in inflows the past four trading days, an enormous amount vs previous weeks.
Source: Coinglass
On the policy side, President Trump wasted no time in taking a victory lap with the tweet, “CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU”RE WELCOME!!!” Yesterday, Trump tapped Paul Atkins to chair the SEC, assuming he accepts, this is positive for the crypto industry. “If the government and the SEC were more accommodating and would deal more straightforwardly with these various [crypto] firms, I think it would be a lot better to have things happen here in the United States rather than outside.”
Hyper Liquid
Hyperliquid's HYPE token airdrop has positioned the protocol among the larger token distribution events in decentralized finance (DeFi). On November 29, the platform distributed 310 million HYPE tokens to its users, accounting for 30% of the total supply. At launch, the tokens were valued at $3.90 each, representing approximately $1.2 billion in market value. Following the airdrop, the token's price increased by 63% within 12 hours, reaching $6.16, with its FDV now at $13 billion.
This airdrop stands out due to its structure—there are no vesting schedules, lockups, or venture capital allocations. Instead, the protocol allocated a substantial portion of tokens directly to users, contrasting with many launches this year that have included smaller user allocations and significant insider ownership. HYPE's performance post-launch of 400% reflects the positive reception of the token by the community.
Hyperliquid is a proof-of-stake layer-1 blockchain capable of processing up to 200,000 transactions per second (TPS). Its HYPE token serves as both the staking asset and the gas token for its Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible layer, HyperEVM. Within four days of launch, Hyperliquid had already captured 37% of the decentralized perpetuals market, a few days after launch.
Source: Dune Analytics @uwusanauwu
In addition to the airdropped 30% of total supply, 38.8% is reserved for future emissions and rewards, 6% is allocated to the Hyper Foundation treasury, and 0.3% is designated for grants. Core contributors hold 23.8% of the supply, subject to a one-year lockup and vesting through 2028. Unlike many comparable projects, there are no allocations for private investors or centralized exchanges, aligning the token’s distribution closely with its community.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token airdrop serves as a sharp contrast to recent poorly received distributions, such as Scroll’s, where dissatisfaction over token allocation and transparency damaged community sentiment. The token distribution, which allocated only 5.5% of the total supply to early contributors and heavily favored specific participation metrics, alienated a significant portion of the community. Complaints about perceived unfairness, including allegations of insider advantages and disproportionate rewards for team addresses, overshadowed the airdrop's intent to reward early adopters.
However, Hyperliquid is not the only airdrop generating attention. Magic Eden’s upcoming $ME token airdrop, scheduled for December 24, again shows how tokenomics and user incentives can drive engagement and positive sentiment. As the leading multi-chain NFT marketplace, Magic Eden has announced an airdrop valued at $390 million, targeting active users across Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum. By distributing 12.5% of its total token supply directly to users, Magic Eden is employing a structure like Hyperliquid’s successful HYPE airdrop, prioritizing community ownership and multi-chain functionality. The $ME token, which has use cases ranging from staking rewards to governance, has been trading pre-market on KuCoin with an average price of $3.90.
Source: ME Foundation blog
Are NFTs back?
The NFT market has shown surprising signs of life recently, sparking questions about whether the sector might be poised for a resurgence. Over the past week, several prominent collections have recorded dramatic gains, with the Yuga Labs ecosystem leading the charge. Collections such as MAYC (up 138%), BAYC (up 99%), and BAKC (up 354%) have seen renewed interest, along with notable rises in other blue-chip collections like CloneX (up 171%) and Cool Cats (up 168%).
Source: CoinGecko
Despite these gains, broader market data suggests it is too early to declare a full-fledged comeback. CryptoSlam’s 500 NFT Index, which tracks the performance of 500 NFT smart contracts across blockchains, remains down 96.4% from all-time highs and 54% year-to-date. Similarly, Ethereum minting activity, a key indicator of NFT market vibrancy, while trending upward from 1,000 to 1,600 mints daily over the past month, is still far from the peak of 469,000 daily mints seen on June 2, 2022.
Source: The Block
Amid this context, RTFKT’s announcement that it will cease operations highlights both the promise and the pitfalls of NFTs. Acquired by Nike in 2021 and ranked ninth among NFT projects by lifetime earnings, RTFKT generated nearly $50 million in revenue and $1.5 billion in trading volume, driven by collections like CloneX. However, declining interest in digital collectibles and waning metaverse enthusiasm reflect the challenges that even high-profile projects face in maintaining relevance and demand.
So, why does this matter? NFTs have long been considered a bellwether for speculative enthusiasm in crypto markets, representing a blend of culture, technology, and financial innovation. Renewed activity in the NFT space could signal a broader resurgence in risk-on behavior across digital assets. Furthermore, a revitalized NFT market would have implications for Ethereum and other blockchain ecosystems, as increased minting and trading activity typically drive higher gas fees and network usage.
Source: Cryptoslam.io
However, structural challenges persist. As modeled in our Ethereum projections, while post-merge gas spending in the NFT category has shown growth, it remains unlikely to approach the peaks of the last market cycle. Additionally, the broader macroeconomic environment and the speculative nature of NFTs may limit the sector's ability to fully rebound without broader crypto market support.
Sector Commentary
- Layer One / Altcoins
- Bitcoin ($BTC): Signs of Bottom Fishing on Upbit After South Korea's Martial Law-Led BTC Flash Crash (link)
- Bitcoin ($BTC): It's Raining Options and BTC Doesn't Care: Crypto Daybook Americas (link)
- Bitcoin ($BTC): Bitcoin's $100K Psychological Barrier May Require Multiple Attacks: Van Straten (link)
- Bitcoin ($BTC): Bitcoin exchange reserves drop to lowest levels in years: CryptoQuant (link)
- Ethereum ($ETH): Ethereum's monthly onchain volume hits $183.7 billion in November (link)
- XRP ($XRP): XRP Records Highest Ever ‘Whale’ Activity as 7-Day Price Gains Near 100% (link)
- Chainlink ($LINK): Chainlink token surges 29% as community dubs LINK the true ‘bank coin’ (link)
- Altcoins: CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: XRP Falls 9.9%, Leading Index Lower from Monday (link)
- DeFi / Stablecoins
- Web3 / AI / NFTs
- RWA / Tokenization / Metaverse / Gaming
- Digital Infrastructure: Capital Markets / Exchanges / DAOs / Mining
- Trump's Top SEC Chair Pick Paul Atkins Reluctant to Take Job: Source (link)
- Retail could undergo ‘real adoption’ this cycle: WisdomTree (link)
- Crypto for Advisors: To Crypto or Not to Crypto? (link)
- Michael Saylor Bitcoin CNBC discussion (link)
- MicroStrategy acquires another 15,400 bitcoin for $1.5 billion, taking holdings to 402,100 BTC (link)
- MicroStrategy Looks Poised to Join Influential Nasdaq-100 Index. Here's What That Means for the Stock. (link)
- Bitstamp CEO on Robinhood acquisition, crypto regulation and the recent market surge (link)
- Bitwise: A new kind of crypto ETF weighs market trends (link)
- BlackRock’s spot ETF surpasses 500,000 bitcoin in assets under management (link)
- Global Ethereum investment products hit $2.2 billion annual inflow record amid US ETF surge (link)
- WisdomTree files with SEC for spot XRP ETF (link)
- Mara Agrees to Buy 114 Mw Texas Wind Farm to Power Data Center (link); Announces Pricing of Convertible Senior Notes (link)
- Crypto execs open up about debanking experiences following Trump's US election win (link)
