By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
LME 3M Copper Price
Before we dive in, I’d like to take a step back and look at how the copper market has evolved over the past decade.
There’s little doubt that copper has entered a bull run since the back end of 2022. Prices have moved in a clear upward trend, underpinned by a growing consensus that the market is heading toward a structural supply deficit later this decade.
At the same time, demand expectations remain robust, driven by power infrastructure, the energy transition, digitalization, and electrification, alongside the reality that there are limited viable substitutes for copper.
Against this backdrop, we’ve also seen increasing participation from speculative investors. Arguably, this has contributed to the volatility and price spikes of the past few years, with markets at times running ahead of macro and fundamental realities.
However, as we moved into the latter part of last year and the first half of this year, something changed.
Copper broke decisively out of that long-term trend channel and has held above it, reaching new all-time highs. This suggests that new, more durable bullish drivers may now be at play, potentially reshaping the copper landscape.
Copper is now widely recognized as a critical mineral. We’re seeing the rise of strategic stockpiling, the impact of US tariffs distorting global trade flows, and a renewed wave of macro-driven investor interest as copper becomes increasingly viewed as a tactical material for the future.
Copper has broken above its long-term trend channel and reached record highs. Are prices justified by fundamentals, or are they increasingly being driven by strategic and speculative factors?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The panel broadly agreed that copper's valuation is increasingly being driven by future scarcity rather than current availability. While short-term corrections remain possible, the structural bull case remains intact.
What has been the most surprising aspect about copper’s price behaviour over the last year?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
Copper is no longer trading solely as an industrial metal. Financial and geopolitical influences are increasingly shaping market behaviour.
Would a resolution of the Iran War materially change the copper outlook?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The panel viewed geopolitical risk primarily through the lens of economic growth rather than direct copper supply disruption.
What happens next with US refined copper tariffs under Section 232 ("requiring 25% of copper input materials (such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes, and anodes) produced in the United States to be sold in the United States – starting at 25% in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028 and 40% in 2029@).
Please note, there is no legal timeline for the decision. The 30th of June is when Howard Lutnick will outline his recommendation to the US President, but he does not have a 90-day deadline and/or then 15-days to enact it). President Trump may just absorb that information.
However, if we assume the most bullish scenario where we see 15% tariffs at the start of 2027, and then 30% in 2028, how would you expect the market to actually adjust in the period immediately after announcement?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The uncertainty itself has become a market driver, with many participants viewing future scrap policy as potentially more important than tariffs themselves.
Where are the biggest opportunities for miners today?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The opportunity exists, but execution remains the challenge. Higher prices alone do not guarantee new supply.
How significant are sulfur and sulfuric acid disruptions?
Areas of Consensus
Sulfur is an operational challenge rather than a market-changing event.
Key Takeaway
The panel viewed sulfur-related issues as important operational risks but not a defining factor for long-term copper prices.
Will concentrate deficits persist?
Areas of Consensus
The concentrate market remains extremely tight.
Key Takeaway
Concentrate availability remains one of the strongest fundamental arguments supporting higher copper prices.
What is most misunderstood about AI-related copper demand?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The significance of AI lies less in today's demand volumes and more in its ability to reinforce long-term electricity and infrastructure demand growth.
How should investors think about copper miners and long-term pricing assumptions?
Areas of Consensus
Long-term fundamentals remain supportive.
Key Takeaway
The investment case is increasingly based on supply scarcity rather than demand optimism alone.
Should markets be worried about demand destruction?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The market acknowledges the risk, but current demand trends remain surprisingly resilient
How much copper is truly available to the market?
Areas of Consensus
Inventory visibility has become increasingly difficult.
Key Takeaway
The debate is no longer how much copper exists, but how much copper is actually available to the marginal buyer.
What single factor should investors watch most closely?
Areas of Consensus
Key Takeaway
The long-term story remains fundamentally bullish, but the path higher is likely to be increasingly volatile.
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Base Metals LME Report by Natalie Scott-Gray
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