CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Trade policy has reemerged as a significant risk factor for the global coffee sector, with the U.S. National Coffee Association (NCA) urging the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to maintain tariff exemptions on coffee products and expand those exemptions to include unflavored instant coffee amid ongoing trade discussions involving Brazil. The outcome could have implications that extend well beyond soluble coffee, potentially influencing supply chains, manufacturing decisions, green coffee demand, and consumer prices throughout North America.
Any discussion of tariffs on coffee products inevitably begins with Brazil.
Brazil remains the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, accounting for roughly one-third of coffee consumed in the United States. The U.S., meanwhile, is the world's largest coffee-consuming market and imports virtually all of the coffee required to satisfy domestic demand. The relationship between the two countries is therefore one of the most important in global coffee trade.
Because coffee cannot be commercially grown at scale within most of the United States, roasters and manufacturers depend heavily on imports from producing countries. Any policy that raises the cost of those imports has the potential to ripple through virtually every segment of the industry's value chain.
While green coffee largely escaped previous tariff proposals through negotiated exemptions, industry leaders are concerned that new trade actions could create additional costs at a time when the coffee sector is already grappling with elevated raw material prices, volatile futures markets, high financing costs, and growing compliance expenses linked to sustainability regulations.
The immediate focus of the NCA's lobbying effort is unflavored instant coffee.
According to the association, current proposals already exempt most coffee products, including green coffee, roasted coffee, and various extracts. However, bulk unflavored instant coffee remains outside the proposed exclusion list despite its importance to the U.S. food and beverage industry.
At first glance, soluble coffee may appear to represent a relatively small niche within the broader market. In reality, it has become a critical ingredient in several of the fastest-growing beverage categories, including ready-to-drink coffee, cold brew concentrates, coffee flavorings, liquid coffee bases, and convenience-oriented products designed for younger consumers.
The NCA estimates that nearly 30 million American adults consume instant coffee daily, while manufacturers increasingly use soluble coffee as an ingredient in value-added beverage production. Because significant quantities of instant coffee are imported from coffee-producing countries, particularly Brazil, the association argues that tariffs could reduce competitiveness and increase production costs throughout the downstream coffee industry. [
The coffee industry is especially sensitive to tariff changes because roasters have relatively limited flexibility when it comes to substitutes.
A manufacturer facing higher tariffs on steel, electronics, or textiles may be able to source alternative inputs domestically. Coffee roasters do not have that luxury. Green coffee must be imported, and many processed coffee products are most efficiently produced in origin countries where coffee is grown.
Industry representatives argue that tariffs imposed on imported coffee products eventually make their way through the supply chain. Higher import costs can affect manufacturers of ready-to-drink beverages, foodservice suppliers, and coffee brands, ultimately putting additional pressure on retail pricing. NCA President Bill Murray has already pointed to tariffs as contributing to visible price inflation across coffee products sold to consumers.
This is occurring at a time when consumers are already dealing with higher coffee prices resulting from the market's dramatic rally over the past two years. Futures prices reached record levels in 2025 before easing in 2026, yet retail prices have remained elevated due to the delayed transmission of costs throughout the supply chain. Additional tariff-related expenses could complicate efforts to stabilize consumer pricing.
For large roasting companies, tariffs may be manageable through hedging strategies, diversified sourcing programs, and scale efficiencies. Smaller roasters and beverage manufacturers often have fewer options.
Higher costs on coffee ingredients can squeeze already thin margins, particularly for companies involved in private-label products, foodservice distribution, and ready-to-drink manufacturing. Some firms could face pressure to reformulate products, absorb costs, or pass increases directly to customers.
The issue is particularly relevant because ready-to-drink coffee remains one of the fastest-growing segments of the coffee industry. Many of these products depend on coffee extracts and soluble ingredients that could be affected by tariff decisions. As a result, the debate extends well beyond the instant coffee aisle and touches some of the industry's most dynamic growth categories.
The renewed focus on tariffs also highlights a broader trend affecting global coffee. Historically, coffee markets were driven primarily by weather, production cycles, and consumption trends. Increasingly, however, policy risks are becoming just as important. Over the past several years, coffee supply chains have had to adapt to trade disputes, shipping disruptions, sanctions, sustainability regulations, due diligence requirements, and geopolitical tensions.
For coffee traders, importers, and roasters, forecasting future costs now requires analyzing not only crop forecasts from Brazil and Vietnam but also developments in Washington, Brussels, and other regulatory centers. The industry's exposure to global politics has never been greater.
The immediate question is whether U.S. trade officials will maintain existing coffee exemptions and extend protection to instant coffee products. Industry organizations argue that such a move would help preserve affordability for consumers, support domestic manufacturing jobs, and avoid further inflationary pressure on coffee products.
Regardless of the outcome, the latest debate serves as a reminder that coffee's future is being shaped by more than weather and crop sizes. While traders continue to monitor harvest progress in Brazil and certified stock levels on ICE, tariff policy has once again emerged as a factor capable of influencing costs, trade flows, and market sentiment across the global coffee sector.
Alexis Rubinstein
Source: USDA, National Coffee Association
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
