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The Cattleman's Advisory Article 12/24/21

By: Kirk Donsbach, Risk Management Consultant (Part-time)

Weekly Cattle 12/24/2021

Cash trade was reported early this week in the South at $135 -136 on very light volume.  By Thursday Packers in the North needed inventory and traded $136-140. That is $2-4 higher than last week, with the 5-area weighted average down $1.62 (as of Wednesday).   Dressed sales started the week at $215 and ended back at $218.  Dressed prices are steady to $2 higher versus last week.   The Basis for current delivery is negative $0.90 – positive $3.10 against the Dec Live boardWeekly slaughter was estimated at 478K for the holiday shortened week.  Slaughter is 2.8% above 2020 YTD, while production is 2.4% more YTD than 2020. Box prices in the Thursday p.m. report where $262.94 choice and $252.95 select, with a $9.99 spread.  Choice lost $0.07 week over week. 

The last report ending Dec 23rd showed estimated Cattle Dressed weights steady versus the prior week at 840 lbs, which is 2 lbs less than last year and 6.6 lbs more than the 5-year average.  Beef production was not updated.

 

Weekly beef export sales were reported at 12015 MT for the 7-day period ending Dec 16th.   That is 6K MT more than last year and 5K MT more than the 5-year average. Accumulated beef exports are 10.0% above last year.

China had export sales of 3831 MT of beef that week.  Chinese accumulated exports are 3.51 times last year at this date.   Check out the  charts.  You will have to select “**beef “, desired countries, and fields.

 

The latest USDA Retail Report for the 7-day period ending Dec 30th shows beef being featured 56.8% of the 29.2K retailers surveyed. That is 8.3% points below the prior week and 0.5% points above the same week last year. 80% seems to be the level indicating strong retail demand.

 

On Dec 23rd Live Cattle Open interest was 308019, increasing 4414 positions Thursday to Thursday. Seasonally, open interest should increase though the first week of April. The last Commitment of Traders (not updated) report as of Dec 14th  showed funds increased their net long Live cattle position by 2449 contracts, resulting in 78881 net long positions.  The funds decreased their net long Feeder Cattle position by 213 feeder contractsleaving them net long 4429 feeder contracts.  

Cattle on Feed , Cold Storage

 

                                                           Actual                         Estimates                   

Cattle on Feed Dec 1st                     99.6%                        98.6-103.1%

Placed Nov                                     103.6%                      96.4-106.7%                 

Marketed Nov                                105.3%                   104.3-105.0%          

 

Cold Storage Nov 30th                   total beef in cold storage; 96% of last year and 104% of last month

 

 

Available analysis on the internet is calling the COF report neutral to slightly bullish based on all numbers falling within the range of estimates.  The 90 days on feed or more cattle supply is at 5.78 million head, measurably less than last year and significantly above the 5-year average.

 

I consider the report neutral as COF fell exactly at the average of trade guesses, or as expectedThe cash news Thursday is much more significant, in my opinion.

 

Feb Live Cattle consolidated at the lower end of the trading range all week, and then exploded on the cash news outlined at the top of this article.  I’m still bullish live cattle futures but the easy money may have been taken out of the market Friday.  Once we get into the new year, my expectations are for a new up-trend to establish its self.  With Feb futures at or under the present cash price, there is no weather premium built into the market.  Given the very cold winter weather I’m experiencing today and through the rest of the week, I feel that weather premium will be needed at some point, and the advantageous “daily gains” won’t continue to benefit from the unseasonal warm weather all winter.   Seasonal pattern for Feb Live Cattle is extremely bullish through expiration.

Jan Feeders left a bottoming pattern Monday, and rallied the rest of the week, closing at the weekly high.  Assuming Cattle Inventory comes out as we expect it to, I’m still very much bullish feeder cattle.  Seasonal Patterns for Jan Feeders are strongly bullish through Jan 1st.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at $160.25, $0.83 lower Friday to Friday. The basis is negative $1.52 against the Jan feeder board

Jan Feeder indicators:

Short term trend is neutral

Moving averages are bullish

Stochastics gave a new buy signal Monday 12/20

Down Side Targets

Support around $158.40

Topside Targets

Major resistance 172

 

Hedging Strategy

Spring calf and Feeder sales: (Spring 2022 delivery)

No recommendation at this time. 

Feeder purchases:

Hopefully you got your buy orders filled on my recommendations last week.  The current price level isn’t that high relative to where I think it could be come March, if you missed out on last week’s recommendation.

I’m still bullish but no specific recommendations this week.

Mar Feeder chart sourced from Gain TDM 12/24/2021

image-20211229071654-1

Fall calf and feeder sales: (fall 2020 delivery)

No recommendation at this time.

Live Cattle Sales:

No recommendation at this time

 

Corn

Sign up for “This week In Grain” by John Payne for a daily analysis of the grain markets.

 

Jan Feeder chart sourced from Gain TDM 12/24/2021

 image-20211229071654-2

Mar Corn chart sourced from Gain TDM 12/26/21

image-20211229071654-3  

Feb Live chart sourced from Gain TDM 12/24/21

 image-20211229071654-4

 

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To open an account or for more information please contact:

 

Kirk Donsbach (kirk.donsbach@stonex.com)

                            406 312 3189

                          

My partner: John Payne (john.payne@stonex.com)

                             312 706 7620

 

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