By: Vincent Deluard, Director - Global Macro Strategy
Talking Points:
Digesting giant squids takes a toll on sperm whales' stomachs, causing them to release a waxy substance called ambergris. This residue exudes a unique, earthy, and musky scent: the North Atlantic’s “floating gold” was so prized by Parisian perfumers that New England whalers almost eradicated the world’s largest mammals in the 19th century.
Swimming with the Target-Date Whale showed that target-date funds’ rebalancing explained statistical miracles in cross-asset performance. This report will show that equity purchases by 401(k)-owned target-date funds have grown much faster than income and market capitalization since 2006. However, these flows should slow in the coming years due to ageing, lower immigration, and a plateau in 401(k) enrolment and target-date funds’ market share. The target-date funds’ appetite for stocks will wane and, in time, the whale may even puke.
The first part will present a simple model of target-date funds’ stock purchases. 401(k)-owned target-date funds bought about $283 billion in US stocks last year. These purchases have soared 12% a year since 2006, versus 3.9% for employee compensation and 8.5% for US equity market capitalization...
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The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
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