Salmon futures are entering 2026 in a market shaped by three competing supply stories. Norway faces biological constraints even as export volumes set new records. Chile is preparing for renewed production growth after a period of consolidation. China is emerging at once as a major buyer and an increasingly ambitious producer.
In this context, insights from Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales, help connect on the ground fundamentals in Norway Chile and China to the pricing signals visible on the salmon futures curve.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Norway remains structurally tight as biological issues constrain biomass even while exports set new records.
Chile is entering a new growth phase with projected biomass expansion and longer term capacity plans.
China is both lifting demand for Norwegian salmon and investing in land based output that could alter trade flows.
Norway remains the reference point for global salmon pricing as traders watch biomass signals and export flows closely. Farmers report fewer fish at sea even as the average size of fish increases, creating the now familiar tension of less fish and more exports. From January to November exports reached around 1.44 million tonnes, more than thirteen percent above the previous season, which reinforces a perception of tightness rather than surplus. That is why industry participants echo the comment that “there’s less fish, more exports therefore it has to be tighter” when they describe the current Norwegian backdrop.
Why China Is Redrawing Demand And Future Trade Flows
China provides both immediate demand strength and future supply uncertainty for the salmon complex. Norwegian exports to China have surged in recent months with September, October and November all showing very strong year on year gains as Chinese buyers step in while other markets soften or face tariff frictions. At the same time China is investing heavily in land-based salmon production and expanding filleting capacity, a shift that could gradually replace some imports and redirect processing volumes. This dual role helps explain why analysts now treat Chinese buying as a key near term support while also watching how domestic Chinese output may reshape longer term trade routes and pricing power.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales
Meats & Livestock
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