Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
The US to Announce Today Decision on Colombia's Decertification on Drugs, Hitting Coffee, Cocoa
By: Diana Delgado, Contractor
The US to Announce Today Decision on Colombia's Decertification on Drugs, Hitting Coffee, Cocoa
Coffee Network (Bogota) – The United States will announce today its decision whether to decertify Colombia in its war against drugs, a determination that could lead to potential tariff increases, affecting Colombian export products including coffee and cocoa and restrictions on US loans from multilateral banks.
The former minister of commerce and finance Jose Manuel Restrepo, said a potential decertification could lead to an increase in tariffs to Colombian products. Colombian coffee and cocoa exports currently pay a 10% tariff to enter the US.
Colombia receives over $450 million each year from the US in cooperation to fight its war against drugs. A possible decertification could also lead a risk perception of the country, Restrepo added.
The Colombia-American chamber of commerce (Amcham) said the United States remains Colombia's main trading partner. Exports totaled US$8.8115 billion, representing 31% of total sales in January-July, according to figures from the statistics department DANE.
65% of products exported to the US are from the non-mining-energy sector, versus 35% from the mining-energy sector, between January and July, according to DANE.
On average, more than 3,000 companies export products to the United States each year, representing 35% of those exporting worldwide, according to DIAN data. So far in 2025, through July, 2,485 companies have exported to that country.
The United States remains Colombia's main historical investor. Investment in the first quarter of 2025 was recorded at US$1,080.2 million, representing 34% of the US$3,142.2 million the country received during that period, according to figures from the Central Bank. Total investment reaches more than 15 sectors in the country, including commerce, telecommunications, oil and mining, finance, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water, construction, and agriculture, among others.
Amcham said there is a 70% chance that the United States will decertify Colombia on failing to prevent the increase of illicit crops, which could result in the reduction of trade between the two countries,
The Administration of US president Donald Trump is expected to make the announcement in mid-September, Amcham noted
The Colombian coffee exporters association Asoexport said the US decertification could lead to the loss of trade preferences, which will impact coffee exports. The negative perception of investment for trade, deterioration in the country's image as an investment destination, or drastic things such as disconnecting the country from the financial system.
The AmCham Colombia study warns that decertification would have profound repercussions on bilateral cooperation, trade, tourism, and investment, with estimates even suggesting the country would lose approximately $1 billion annually if the United States toughens travel warnings for its citizens.
Colombia reached 253,000 hectares of coca crops in 2023, up 10% on the previous year, according to the Integrated System for Monitoring Illicit Crops (SIMCI) report of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
The government’s anti-narcotics strategy has taken a much more permissive stance on coca crops than predecessors, according to Insight Crime.
Since taking power in 2022, Colombian President Gustavo Petro has directed the efforts of security forces and institutions toward seizing drugs and attacking the most lucrative links in drug trafficking, while helping rural communities move toward legal alternatives. His predecessors were more focused on eradication, a move the United States has helped fund for decades.
Colombian green coffee exports reached 11.42 million bags in 2024, which represented an increase of 17%, compared with 9.73 million bags exported in 2023. The exported volume increased in the main markets, except for China.
Coffee exports to the US were worth US$1.29 billion as of November, compared with $1.35 billion in full year 2023, the coffee growers federation said.
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11
August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.
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- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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