UPDATE: Brazil’s Coffee Output Seen At 49 Million Bags In 2021-2022: Conab
(UPDATE ADDS DETAILS SUCH AS PRODUCITIVITY)
Coffee Network (Bogota)- Brazilian coffee output in the 2021-2022 coffee year has been revised lower to 48.8 million bags of 60-kg, a decrease of 22.6% over the preceding year, the Brazil's food supply and statistics agency Conab, said today.
Arabica coffee production is estimated at 33.4 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 31.5% compared to the volume produced in the last harvest. Conilon, for its part, should reach 15.4 million bags, an increase of 7.9% in relation to the previous coffee year.
The forecast implies that Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producers, is expected to produce 14.28 million bags of fewer coffee compared to the previous harvest, which had a production of 63.08 million bags, considered a record within the historical series of the grain, Conab added. The estimated acreage for this production is also expected to decrease compared to 2020 and currently stands at 1.8 million hectares, 3.2% less than the previous season.
“The physiological effects observed in several producing regions in this cycle, as well as the adverse climatic conditions recorded in many places, directly influenced this perspective. This influence was produced both in the reduction of the average yield and in the reduction of the area in production. Usually, this reduction already occurs in negative biennial cycles due to the need for more intense cultural treatments in the crops to recover the vegetative potential of the plants,” Conab said early today.
Rains were also below in some regions reducing the supply available of Brazilian coffee, Conab added.
Production by regions
In Minas Gerais, total coffee production is estimated at 23.3 million bags, a reduction of 32.6% compared to the total volume harvested in the previous harvest. The most produced coffee in the state is Arabica, which is more influenced by the effects of the negative bienniality.
In Espírito Santo, the estimated production is 13.63 million bags. São Paulo should reach the production of 4 million bags of coffee, which also indicates a reduction compared to the result of 2020. In Bahia, the production will be almost 4 million bags of coffee. Rondônia is expected to produce 2.2 million bags, while Paraná will produce 876,000 bags of processed coffee.
Then comes Rio de Janeiro, with 235,000 bags, Goiás, with 212,000 bags, and Mato Grosso, with 199,000 bags.
Market
The increase in Brazilian coffee exports in 2020 helped limit domestic supply and support domestic prices in the period.
In 2021, the scenario of robust exports continues in the first four months, although the fall in production to be harvested this year limits the availability of coffee for export in the following months. Specifically externally, between January and April 2021, Brazil exported around 15.8 million bags of coffee, which represents an increase of 24.3% compared to the same period in 2020.
In the first four months of 2021, the total value of Brazilian coffee exports reached US $ 2 billion, which corresponds to an increase of 21.4% compared to the same period in 2020. In this period, Brazil exported coffee to more than 120 countries.
Productivity
Coffee productivity in the 2021-2022 coffee year is expected to fall 25.4% over the preceding year to a national average productivity of 25 bags per hectare/ ha.
The current crop is marked by the presence of the negative biennial effect (especially in Arabica coffee) in almost all producing regions. Such influence is reflected in the results of average productivity and it allows explaining the lowest estimates for this crop, Conab added.
Productivity of Arabica is expected to be 23 bags / ha, signalling a decrease of 28.5% in comparison to the result obtained in 2020.
Arabica are specially affected by the bienniality, Conab added.
Conilon coffee will see an increase in coffee productivity to 41.1 bags /hectare, 5.9% higher than in the previous coffee year. This is possible because conilon is a more rustic species and, therefore, has some advantages over Arabica. The biennial cycle is less intense in the conilon coffee, with smaller variations in production when compared to compared to Arabica, Conab added.
In addition, climatic conditions in some producing regions were below expectations, especially in terms of rainfall, recording periods of drought in important phases for the coffee development.
The biennial cycle is a characteristic of coffee and consists of alternating one year with a large flowering followed by another with less intense flowering.
This natural characteristic allows the plant to recover to produce better in the subsequent harvest. However, climatic adversity can change the biennial cycle, as occurred in 2014 which, despite being a positive harvest, the strong water restriction caused productivity to be less than the previous year
By Diana Delgado
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