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CBAM hedging matters because importers owe carbon costs before they can buy the certificates that settle them. Financially settled swaps and supply contract terms are the main ways companies manage that open exposure.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals.
A U.S. midterm clean sweep is seen as a near-term risk for the dollar if it raises the odds of political gridlock. Strong U.S. data and a Federal Reserve still leaning toward tighter policy give the greenback a sturdier floor underneath.
The U.S. midterm elections put Bitcoin's regulatory path on the line, and a Democratic sweep is not the only outcome that weighs on the cryptocurrency. A gridlocked Congress could stall the regulatory progress Bitcoin has enjoyed under the Trump administration.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz does not release fertilizer supply all at once, because Persian Gulf ports load vessels at a fixed pace. That loading limit shapes how nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur markets move from selloff to recovery.
Daily coffee report
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Once the Reserve Bank of Australia has spoken, AUD/USD event risk moves to U.S. data. Nonfarm payrolls carry the largest potential impact on U.S. monetary policy and on the dollar side of the pair.
A fully priced Bank of England hike shifts the focus to what policymakers say about the path beyond it. The minutes, the governor's press conference and the forecasts set the tone that moves sterling and EUR/GBP.
The Australian dollar lost ground across the major currencies after a split RBA board removed its explicit pledge to keep tightening. Softer domestic data and the risk of a broader risk-off tone add pressure from both sides.
November 3 – It’s election day in the U.S., with the corresponding geopolitical uncertainty looking to drive a day of volatile, headline-driven trade. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open, with the Nasdaq hoping to find some turnaround Tuesday action to stop the bleeding from the recent selloff that has battered the tech sector and drove the index to its lowest close since late July yesterday. The VIX is off its overnight highs but remains elevated, hovering near 20.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged to start the day, trading at 101.82. Treasury yields are quietly higher after their recent slide that has coincided with the selloff in the equities, particularly tech, potentially signaling some investors fleeing to safe havens, with 2-year yields at 4.585%, 10-year yields at 4.919%, and 30-year yields at 5.294% this morning. Meanwhile, the ags are mostly lower at the break.
Potential key changes if the Democrats take both Chambers
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