
Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report

- Coffee
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The latest report from the USDA pegged Brazil’s 2022-2023 coffee crop at 64.3 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent, an increase of 6.2 million bags relative to the revised figure for the previous crop year (58.1 million 60-kg bags).
Arabica production is projected at 41.5 million bags, an increase of 14 percent vis-a-via the previous season. Most of the producing areas are in the on-year of the biennial production cycle and rainfall volumes have been mostly favorable in all growing regions as of October 2021, supporting the development and filling of the fruits. However, weather-related issues in some areas such as below[1]average rainfall that prevailed until September 2021 and the severe frosts in June/July 2021 have affected Arabica coffee trees' first blossoming and fruit setting, thus reducing the production potential for the upcoming crop. Note that the Arabica crop for 2022/23 is expected to be down 8.2 million bags (16 percent) compared to the 2020/21 Arabica crop (49.7 million bags). The 2020/21 Arabica crop was the latest coffee crop with trees on the on-year of the biennial production cycle and expressing their full production potential.
Robusta/Conilon production is forecast at 22.8 million bags, a 1.1-million-bag increase relative to the previous crop season. Above-average weather conditions (rainfall volumes and temperature) and good crop management resulted in good blossoming and fruit setting in most coffee fields. A marginal increase in the harvest area also supports the expected increase in production. Robusta/Conilon harvest started in April in major growing areas.
The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/Sao Paulo estimate for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (July-June) was revised upward to 58.1 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent, an increase of 1.8 million 60-kg bags 3 vis-à-vis the last estimate, based on updated supply/demand information from the industry. Arabica production is estimated at 36.4 million bags, whereas the estimate for Robusta/Conilon production is 21.7 million bags. Post contacts report that producers have already marketed over 90 percent of the 2021/22 crop.
The total area planted for coffee for MY 2022/23 is projected slightly higher at 2.495 million hectares, an increase of one percent relative to the previous season. In contrast, coffee tree inventory is projected at 7.61 billion trees, an increase of 100 million trees vis-à-vis the previous crop year.
The Brazilian coffee yield for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 31.83 bags/hectare, up ten percent compared to the revised number for the previous crop (28.91 bags/hectare). The increase is supported by the on-year of the biennial production cycle for Arabica trees (although, limited by adverse weather events) and above weather conditions in Robusta/Conilon production areas.
Consumption
Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 22.45 million coffee bags (21.5 million bags of roast/ground and 950,000 bags of soluble coffee, respectively), based on updated information from post contacts and official economic indicators. This figure represents a marginal increase vis-à-vis the revised figure for MY 2021/22 (22.34 million bags – 21.4 million bags of roast/ground and 940,000 bags of soluble coffee, respectively). Economic indicators such as the expected modest growth of the Brazilian economy, high inflation rates, and high coffee prices at retail have created difficulties for increased consumption.
Exports
Coffee exports for MY 2022/23 are forecast at 39.045 million 60-kg bags, green beans, an increase of three percent relative to the revised figure for MY 2021/22 (39.992 million bags) due to the expected larger exportable surplus). Despite the significantly higher prices that prevailed in the last couple of 9 years, Brazil remains competitive in the world market and the depreciated local currency (Real) has supported strong exports.
ATO/Sao Paulo has revised the estimate for MY 2021/22 coffee exports upward to 37.992 million 60- kg bags, green beans, an increase of 14 percent relative to the previous figure. The estimate is based on year-to-date export volumes and anticipated May-June loadings. Green bean (Arabica and Robusta/Conilon) exports are estimated at 34 million bags. Major green bean export destinations include the United States, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Japan. Soluble coffee exports are estimated at 3.95 million bags.
The Russia – Ukraine war has negatively affected soluble coffee imports to those countries. According to the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Industry Association (ABICS), Russia is the second top and Ukraine is the seventh major soluble coffee importer from Brazil and coffee imports to those countries dropped by roughly 61,000 bags from January-April 2022
Alexis Rubinstein
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Daily coffee report


August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.


Daily coffee report

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