StoneX logo
Contact us

USDA Attache: Mexico’s 2023-2024 Coffee Crop Forecast at 4.1 Million Bags

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Add us as preferred source on Google
USDA Attache: Mexico’s 2023-2024 Coffee Crop Forecast at 4.1 Million Bags 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor
alexis.rubinstein@stonex.com

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The latest USDA attache report notes that Mexico’s total production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (October to September) is forecast unchanged from the prior year at 4.1 million 60/kg bags. The production estimate for MY 2022/23 of 4.1 million 60/kg bags is a slight increase from MY 2021/23 production of 3.8 million 60/kg bags. This increase is driven by producers planting new disease-resistant varieties during the last few years. High international coffee prices have incentivized farmers to plant more coffee and adopt new techniques to improve yields.

Coffee planted area and harvested area are forecast at 0.69 and 0.66 million hectares (ha) respectively for MY 2023/24, a 3 percent increase in harvested area compared to the previous marketing year. The Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) reports that the GOM and state governments are undertaking efforts to replant existing areas with disease-resistant plants. The projects, in partnership with industry, are aimed at recovering existing coffee areas with higher-density planting of disease resistance trees, resulting in more efficient production. Planted area density with new varieties is between 3,330 and 3,500 plants per ha. Investments made in 2022 are projected to increase output in MY2023/2024.

Management to Control Coffee Pests According to Mexico’s National Service of Health, Food Safety, and Food Quality (SENASICA), the presence of the coffee berry borer (CBB, Hypothenemus hampei) has been significantly reduced in recent years. CBB is an insect that develops inside the fruit and results in production losses and decreased quality of taste, smell, color, and texture. In severe cases, plant mortality occurs. Currently, infestation rates are less than two percent. The severity level of coffee rust has also decreased, mainly in regions replanting rust-resistant varieties. Producers report having greater familiarity with management and prevention, reducing the risk to production

Yield Coffee yields vary according to field management, weather, altitude, and variety. National yield for MY 2023/24 is forecast at 6.1 60 kg/bags/ha. The states of Chiapas and Veracruz are Mexico’s leading producers and have the highest planted area. Chiapas has 400 cooperatives with 178 thousand producers, 95 percent of which is composed of small producers with less than three ha. With mostly large and medium producers, Puebla and Veracruz states lead the country in terms of yield. These two states continue to expand planted area, increase planting of pest resistant varieties, and benefit from access to fertilizer and investment financing to increase productivity. In addition, they have good highway and port infrastructure. Oaxaca is the number three state in terms of planted area, but mostly includes small producers facing significant investment and marketing constraints.

Consumption In MY 2023/24, Mexico’s coffee consumption is forecast at 2.9 million 60 kg/bags. Soluble coffee accounts for approximately 60 percent of consumption, and ground coffee around 40 percent. According to SADER and industry data, the average annual coffee consumption is between 1.3 kg and 1.5 kg/per capita in Mexico. This slight increase is due to population growth, but the rate of increase is lower than the population growth due to Mexico’s higher-than-normal food inflation. The MY 2022/23 consumption estimate is revised from previous estimates to 2.9 million 60/kg bags due to a complete recovery of cafes and restaurants in urban and tourist areas. Roasting sector contacts report interest in high-quality, single-origin coffee on the part of urban coffee consumers; typically, these consumers are high-income earners. There is potential to increase consumption throughout the country, but obstacles remain. For example, there are no market regulations for quality, only for production process (i.e., organic or other certifications). Additionally, capsule coffee has gained popularity in the country in recent years and is readily available in most large cities.

Trade Exports for MY 2023/24 are forecast at 3 million 60/kg bags. The United States continues to be Mexico’s top market for green, roasted, and soluble coffee. According to the Trade Data MY 2023/24 imports are forecast at 1.9 million 60kg/bags, a decrease of 8 percent from the previous year.

Stocks Forecast MY 2023/24 ending stocks are 76,000 60 kg/bags. MY 2022/23 stocks are revised to 96,000 60 kg/bags.

Prices Although international prices for coffee have come down from a high of US $ 2.2 per lb in February 2022, prices have remained strong at around 1.80 lb throughout 2023. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) lost 2.7% from February 2023 to March 2023, averaging 170.03 US cents/lb for the latter while posting a median value of 170.11 US cents/lb. In March 2023, the I-CIP fluctuated between 164.36 and 175.93 US cents/lb.

 

  • Coffee

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team
  • Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.