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USDA: Colombia’s Coffee Production Pegged at 13.8 Million Bags in 21-22

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

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USDA: Colombia’s Coffee Production Pegged at 13.8 Million Bags in 21-22
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor 
alexis.rubinstein@stonex.com

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – According to the latest USDA report, in MY 2021/22, Colombian coffee production is forecast at 13.8 million bags GBE, 2.1 percent lower from the previous estimate as the Colombian Institute of Meteorology (IDEAM) increased the likelihood of the La Niña weather phenomena impacting Colombia. According to IDEAM, there is a nearly 90 percent chance that La Niña will develop during the last quarter of 2021 and early 2022 in Colombia, which would represent an increase in rainfall in the most important coffee producing regions affecting the flowering period and therefore the coffee harvest of the second half of the year 2022. Also, wet conditions are conducive to the spread of coffee rust, but the significant replanting program of rust resistant varieties will mitigate that threat. The Coffee Producers Federation (Fedecafe) indicates that 84.1 percent of coffee area is planted with rust resistant varieties. In MY 2020/21, Post’s revised Colombian coffee production estimates are down 6.3 percent from 14.3 to 13.4 million bags GBE. Disruptions in supply chains in May and June due to the 45-day national protest, combined with excessive rains and cloudiness in the main coffee regions, saw yields fall more than expected resulting in lower production. Despite high coffee prices motivating growers to harvest using sanitary protocols, adverse weather conditions and transportation disruptions have reversed the growth trend in production levels.

Colombian domestic prices remain high, driven by high international prices, and the Colombian peso (COP) devaluation. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, local prices have jumped to historical highs. Fedecafe reported that 125-kilogram coffee bags reached their highest value in the history of Colombia at $1,972,000 Colombian pesos ($508 USD) on November 12, 2021, a 92 percent increase year-overyear. The graph below illustrates the monthly internal price paid to growers per 125-kilogram bag. The estimated average production cost is illustrated by the orange dotted line. However, coffee farmers claimed that production costs have increase as a result of the implementation of sanitary measures, higher salaries due to shortage of labor, and increasing prices of inputs.

Consumption:

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised Colombian coffee consumption figure is 4.9 percent higher than the previous estimate. Consumption is forecast to increase to 2.2 million bags GBE in-line with higher demand resulting from Colombia’s economic recovery. According to the World Bank, in calendar year (CY) 2021, the economy is projected to grow 7.7 percent and return to pre-pandemic economic growth levels at the end of CY 2021. In MY 2020/21, Post’s revised consumption estimates are up 5.0 percent from 2.0 million to 2.1 million bags GBE in response to Colombia’s economic recovery and resumed operations of several economic sectors. In the first half of CY 2021, Colombia’s economy grew 8.8 percent. The measures to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19 led Colombia to an economic contraction in CY 2020 (-6.8% decrease in GDP) that affected household incomes and consumption patterns. However, coffee was one of the few items that saw increased household demand during the pandemic. According to Fedecafe, Colombia’s coffee per capita consumption is estimated at 2.2 kilograms (4.6 pounds). Approximately 70 percent of Colombia’s total consumption is roasted and ground coffee, while the remaining 30 percent is soluble coffee.

Trade:

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee exports are forecast to 13.5 million bags GBE, unchanged from the previous estimate. High international prices will boost coffee exports, assuming production levels are steady despite adverse weather patterns. In MY 2020/21, Post’s revised coffee exports are down 5.6 percent from 13.8 to 13.0 million bags GBE. Road blockades throughout the country during the 45-day national protest impeded coffee movement from producing regions to ports, especially the Pacific port of Buenaventura, which is the largest outlet of Colombian coffee exports (nearly 70 percent). In addition, lower production in MY 2020/21 resulted in decreased exports. Colombia’s coffee bean exports represent over 90 percent of total coffee exports, followed by soluble coffee and roasted coffee. The United States continues as the major destination for Colombian coffee, accounting for more than 40 percent of Colombia’s coffee exports, followed by the European Union (27 percent), and Japan (9 percent).

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee imports forecast is up 17.8 percent, from 1.4 to 1.7 million bags GBE, to satisfy Colombia’s increasing domestic demand. In MY 2020/21, Post’s revised coffee imports are up 33 percent from 1.4 to 1.8 million bags GBE, based on year-to-date available data. Increasing imports are the result of growing local demand, lower domestic production, and motivation to export due to high international prices. Since MY 2019/20, Brazil is the top coffee supplier to Colombia, accounting for nearly 60 percent of total imports. Peru is the second largest supplier, followed by Honduras and Ecuador. Imports are primarily used to meet the lower-end of the domestic market.

Stocks:

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised ending stocks are forecast at 645,000 bags GBE. Post’s revised ending stocks for MY 2020/21 are up 34.6 percent from the previous estimate, to 840,000 bags GBE, as a consequence of road blockades throughout the country from the 45-day national protest that impeded coffee movement from producing regions to ports and consumption centers. Neither the Colombian government nor Fedecafe have a policy to support large scale carry-over stocks of coffee.

Alexis Rubinstein

 

 
 
  • Coffee

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