
Daily Coffee Report 8/13/26
Daily coffee report

- Coffee
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
USDA: Ethiopia’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 7.62 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork – According to the latest USDA attache report, Ethiopia’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee crop is forecast at 7.62 million 60-kilogram bags (457,200 MT), up 20,000 bags from the previous crop year.
(From the USDA report)
Production: MY 2021/22 coffee production is forecasted at 7.62 million bags (457,200 MT), 20,000 bags higher than the current 2020/21 crop estimate, assuming suitable weather and adequate rain. The 2020/21 crop estimate is revised a little bit upwards to 7.6 million bags compared to our projections in 2019/20 which was 7.5 million bags. The growth in production volume is mainly due to the higher yields observed in the coffee growing belts mainly in southern and western regions of the country. The amount and distribution pattern of rain was normal to higher than normal during the coffee growing season of MY 2020/21. There was some coffee loss in the western part of coffee growing belts due to Coffee Berry Disease (CBD). CBD cause significant crop losses although the magnitudes of damage vary due to coffee variety and rainfall amount. Coffee experts are advising coffee farmers to take all possible phytosanitary measures such as regular field monitoring, to uproot and burn infected coffee trees.
Consumption: Domestic coffee consumption in MY 2021/22 is forecast at 3.5 million bags (210,000 MT) assuming that the domestic consumption returns to normal after the COVID-19 pandemic. For MY 2020/21, post estimates global consumption to reach 3.55 million bags. This is due to better local price of coffee than export price. Coffee consumed in the local market is mainly coffee rejected or failed to meet the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) export quality standards. However, the local price is usually higher than international price for coffee arabica. Coffee plays a vital role in both cultural and social life of Ethiopians. The GOE has imposed measures like social distancing and special seat arrangement based on room size, which has had a huge impact on coffee shops, micro-roasters, restaurants, and other out-of-home outlets. However, the current trend towards more consumption at home and offices are forcing retailers, roasters, and consumers to adapt to this new situation.
Trade: MY 2021/22 coffee exports projected at 4.1 million bags (246,000 MT), assuming that a complete worldwide recovery from COVID-19 pandemic crises and improved security situation in the country. Based on export performance during the first half of MY 2020/21, we predict total exports to reach only 4 million bags (240,200 MT), lower from the official USDA estimate of 4.15 million bags. The anticipated decrease is mainly due to low interest of some exporters to the revised government policy on minimum export price fixation to avoid under invoicing by exporters and security situation in some parts of coffee growing regions. MY 2019/20 coffee export reached to 248,129 MT valued at USD 821,140.
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Daily coffee report


August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.


Daily coffee report

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