StoneX’s Kathryn Rooney Vera Discusses Trump and Inflation on CFA Chile Podcast

Key takeaways

• StoneX’s Kathryn Rooney Vera expects Trump’s second term to be “very different” from his 2016 to 2020 term
• The markets anticipate lower corporate taxes, less regulation and substantial 2025 growth
• Rooney Vera calls Scott Bessent as pick for Treasury Secretary a positive choice

StoneX Chief Market Strategist Kathryn Rooney Vera recently joined Verónica Armas and Pedro Pablo Palma as the featured guest on Zoom Financiero, the podcast of the CFA Society Chile. Rooney Vera offered her insights into potential effects on inflation and the markets if promised policies are enacted by incoming President-elect Donald Trump.

“From the market’s perspective, Donald Trump’s policies - or the mix of his policies - are viewed positively in terms of profitability, growth, and equities,” Rooney Vera stated. As for what the market is expecting from the new administration, Rooney Vera expects to see what Trump said he would deliver. “The market is counting on a significant reduction in corporate taxes … less regulation and substantial economic growth for the coming year.”

While Rooney Vera does expect to see history repeat somewhat, she believes that this second term is “going to be very different.” She continued, “[T]he market is more optimistic because of the cabinet he has chosen—the individuals he has surrounded himself with … these are credible people, well-known, and fairly moderate in their positions.”

Several of Trump’s picks for cabinet level appointees and advisors have been called controversial by many, including his fellow Republicans. Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary, however, Rooney Vera said, is market favourable. “Scott Bessent, for the Treasury, is very positive,” she said. “There are other names that grab more media attention … but they are less important from the markets’ perspective,” Rooney Vera said. “Ultimately, the focus is on profitability and corporate earnings growth.”

Regarding Trump’s picks for economic posts, Rooney Vera was encouraged. In his first term, Trump surrounded himself with people who, in Rooney Vera’s words, “… weren’t fully aligned with his vision.” She went on, “[T]his second time around, with the experience he’s gained and the advisors he now has, the individuals in his team are more aligned with his vision.” Combine this with Trump’s decisive win in the election, and Rooney Vera expects Trump to follow through on his plans for immigration and tax cuts in this coming term but admits making good on those cuts will take time. “They need to go through the reconciliation process … so, tax cuts will likely come into effect toward the end of next year.”

When asked about tariffs and their effect on inflation, Rooney Vera seem unconcerned, “… we’ve already seen this movie before.” In his first term as president, Trump raised tariffs on China, and inflation was not significantly affected, “markets were, but inflation itself was not,” Rooney Vera added. “It’s also important to remember that tariffs are a negotiation tool.”

Palma asked Rooney Vera for her views on Bitcoin and what might be on the horizon given the new administration’s position on the alternative asset class and its potential for entering the institutional world. “[T]he market views the development very positively, as it signals that Bitcoin will have clearer parameters, regulations, and transparency, allowing institutions to begin investing in cryptocurrencies,” she said.

While admitting that cryptocurrencies are not her field of expertise, Rooney Vera said she remains cautiously optimistic. “[F]rom conversations within my company, StoneX, where we have a dedicated cryptocurrency division, I can tell you there is a very positive outlook on this … there is considerable enthusiasm about the potential for more and larger investors entering this space.”

For deeper insight into her personal journey, Rooney Vera was asked if she had a time machine and could go back in time, what professional advice would she give her younger self. “Ah, that’s a great question. What I would tell myself is not to panic if things don’t go the way you want or if something bad happens—don’t panic too much because things tend to work out in the end. Everything passes, and it usually turns out well.” 

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For more on the markets, the LatAm region and Kathryn Rooney Vera’s professional journey, listen to the full podcast here (In Spanish)