Corn and Soybean Demand Builds as Supply Fears Ease
A strong US crop is taking shape across the Corn Belt, yet the market conversation is shifting away from bushels and toward buyers. A newly released StoneX yield survey offered a first look at national production potential, pegging corn at 184.8 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53 bushels per acre from an aggregation of hundreds to thousands of client data points. Farm Journal TV examined what the numbers reveal about crop quality, regional variation and the demand catalysts now shaping price direction into the rest of the season. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, and Mike Castle, Senior Commodities Economist at StoneX, joined the channel to explain why supply is no longer the dominant story and how export and domestic demand could tighten balance sheets in the months ahead.
Key Takeaways
- The StoneX survey pegs national corn at 184.8 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53 bushels per acre, drawn from hundreds to thousands of aggregated client data points.
- Demand rather than supply is now the central market driver, spanning corn export needs tied to Black Sea disruption and record domestic soybean crush.
- Strong domestic soybean demand is already showing up in firm old crop basis, with cash beans harder to source in some regions.
Demand Takes Over as the Big Crop Story Fades
With current genetics carrying yields north of 180 bushels per acre for a second year, the market has grown accustomed to a large corn crop and turned its attention to consumption. Suderman argued the balance of drivers has changed, noting the market is now much more focused on demand and pointing to export gaps created as Ukraine, the world's fourth largest exporter, struggles to move grain.
On soybeans, the pull is both foreign and domestic, with Castle explaining that over 60% of total soybean demand stays in the United States because crushers are incentivized with massive margins to keep bumping crush up. Suderman added that if China follows through on 25 million metric tons of soybean purchases, we could be looking at a much tighter story for the balance sheet. Consequently, both economists cautioned producers to market with discipline, layering in sales to capture positive margins rather than betting on hitting the high.
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Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
Expert: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Expert: Mike Castle, Senior Commodities Economist
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