By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
StoneX VP of Fertilizer Josh Linville breaks down how a steep decline in China’s phosphate and urea exports is upending the global fertilizer market just as critical planting periods approach.
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China’s decision to drastically reduce phosphate exports is sending shockwaves through the global market. “In January, February, March of 2022, they exported 950,000 tons... March [2025] is only 13,000 tons,” said Linville. The reduction is part of a strategy to protect domestic supplies and stabilize internal pricing amid high global demand.
The policy has worked well for Chinese farmers but import-reliant countries are now grappling with tighter supplies. Linville warns that even if export restrictions ease, China may lack inventory to resume meaningful exports in Q2.
Five countries dominate phosphate exports: Morocco, Russia, China, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia. With China backing away, “we simply don’t have the excess production around the world to take care of that kind of a differential,” Linville said.
That dynamic is expected to create bullish pressure in the phosphate market, particularly for countries reliant on DAP and MAP fertilizers. Linville believes that U.S. farmers may need to shift seasonal buying habits to secure supply earlier than usual.
The urea situation mirrors phosphate. China typically exports 5 to 5.5 million tons annually, but 2025 volumes are far below that. “So far this fertilizer year… significantly less exports,” Linville confirmed. Despite high stockpiles and strong production, Chinese authorities are holding exports back, viewing urea as an energy-like strategic commodity.
Combined with underperforming European output, global urea supply remains tight. “That price floor [for urea] is significantly higher than it would be otherwise,” Linville noted.
Domestically, U.S. nitrogen markets are facing intense pressure. UAN volumes are drying up, with many retailers pushing deliveries out to June. As a result, growers are shifting to dried urea, which has become more competitively priced per pound of nitrogen.
“Retailers are saying it will be late May before they can find substantial volume,” Linville added. Imports won’t help in time—shipping and distribution delays mean new deliveries may not reach farms until well after planting is complete.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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A corn rally has left fertilizer values sitting near the cheap end of their multi-year range, and that gap is closing from the bottom up rather than the top down. Josh Linville traces how farmer buying, retailer restocking and manufacturer pricing combine to end an affordability window, and why phosphate has almost no room to fall.
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