Daily Coffee Report 10/2/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
European Central Bank Tightening Hits Its Limits as Growth Risks Rise
The European Central Bank has hiked twice, but a deteriorating growth outlook is narrowing its room to go further. With the Federal Reserve tightening at a faster pace, the policy balance continues to favor the U.S. dollar over the euro.
Michael Boutros
- Currencies
Silver Breaks Uptrend Alongside Gold, Finds Support at Golden Ratio
Silver has broken below its three-month uptrend in step with gold, yet its decline has paused at the golden 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The 2026 yearly lows now mark the boundary between a routine correction and a deeper drawdown toward multi-decade support.
Razan Hilal
- Precious Metals
Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 2
October 2 – The bad news is good news trade is back in full effect, with stock futures surging to point to a notably stronger open following a significantly worse than expected tranche of U.S. labor market data in this morning’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report which we’ll dive into in more depth below. The VIX has broken sharply lower in response, now hovering around 15.5, its lowest level since last Friday. The dollar is following suit as this softens Fed rate expectations, now down 0.2% on the day to trade near 101.86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are joining in on the drop as well, with the 2-year at 4.74%, 10-year at 5.184%, and 30-year at 5.57%. Crude oil is notably lower to start the day, with nearby WTI down 3.9% to trade near $89.30 and nearby Brent down 3.1% to trade near $99.10. Meanwhile, the ags are largely mixed to start the session, with parts of the wheat complex narrowly in the green at the break while corn and soybeans hang in the red.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
El Nino's Timing, Not Its Strength, Decides Which Harvests Feel It
A super El Nino is drawing headlines for its strength, but its timing decides which harvests feel it. From Australian wheat to Brazilian soybeans and Northern European wheat quality, the same weather can help one crop and hurt another.
Editorial Team
- Grains & Oilseeds
U.S. 10-Year Yields Stretch to Resistance and Dollar Pairs Carry Risk
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are pressing into long-term resistance with overbought momentum readings across several timeframes, and the line between a sustained hold and a breakdown now shapes the path for the U.S. dollar. A bearish divergence on the daily chart adds short-term pullback risk across dollar pairs and major currency pairs.
Razan Hilal
- Currencies
Fed Pricing Could Crack on Three Fronts, So Why Hasn't It Happened Yet
Federal Reserve rate expectations could shift through a weaker U.S. consumer, a slowdown in AI capex or a sustained fall in energy prices. Fed pricing has stayed hawkish so far, leaving positive carry and intervention risk to keep pulling USD/JPY in opposite directions.
David Scutt
- Currencies
Rate Cut Hopes Turn Into Hike Bets as Bond Yields Pressure U.S. Stocks
Bond markets have swung from expecting rate cuts to pricing further hikes, as elevated oil and commodity costs keep inflation pressure alive. The shift is pushing up Treasury yields and exposing a U.S. stock market that leans more and more on a handful of tech and AI names.
Fawad Razaqzada
- Equities
Daily Coffee Report 10/1/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 1
October 1 – Stocks have fallen through the session to hang in the red at midday while the VIX pushes notably higher to sit above 17.5, now a two-week high. The dollar continues its surge higher as well, hovering at a nearly one-and-a-half-year high near the 101.9 level. Treasury yields are falling most sharply at the front-end of the curve, with 2-year yields back down to 4.815%, while long-term yields have fallen from their morning highs to now trade lower on the day, as 10-year yields sit just above 5.27% and 30-year yields sit just above 5.63% at the time of writing. Crude oil has had a volatile session but remains higher at midday, with nearby WTI up 2.4% to trade near $92.50 and nearby Brent up a sharper 3.7% to trade near $101.65. The ags are mostly lower at midday, led down by the soy complex, with soybeans down double digits at the time of writing.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
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