By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
S&P 500, Treasury Bond, Gold, and Bitcoin Market Volatility Key Talking Points
Below, we highlight how anticipated volatility in major markets has evolved so far this year, highlighting relative changes in expected market moves in the stock, bond, currency, and cryptoasset markets:
Source: StoneX, TradingView
As the table below shows, expected volatility for major markets currently sits in the middle of the range over the last month, but still generally low relative to the last quarter and year. Volatility in Bitcoin (DVOL) is particularly subdued, in the bottom ventile (in the bottom 5%) over the last month, quarter, and year:
Source: StoneX, TradingView
Detailed volatility outlooks for major markets follow:
S&P 500 Volatility Outlook (VIX)
Starting with the stock market, the VIX, Wall Street’s “Fear Gauge” of implied volatility in the S&P 500 remains below 18 as of writing, down more than two-thirds from the peak near 60 seen in early April. At this level, the VIX suggests that options traders expect daily moves of roughly 1.1% in the S&P 500 and weekly moves of about 2.5%. Compared to the average VIX reading of 19.5 since inception in 1990, anticipated stock market volatility over the next month is near average.
As of writing, we’re entering the Q2 earnings season, with analysts anticipating relatively low earnings growth near 5%. While ostensibly a downshift from recent quarters, these low expectations may set an achievable hurdle for companies to clear if the megatrend of AI-related capital expenditures continues unabated and operational efficiencies emerge.
Treasury Bond Market Volatility Outlook (MOVE)
Since the April spike, implied volatility in the Treasury bond market has trended consistently lower as traders pushed back any expectation of interest rate changes from the Fed until September at the earliest. With the MOVE index nearing its lowest level in 3.5 years and potential tail risks from US trade policy or the outside risk that President Trump fires Jerome Powell, there may be a case for volatility to pick up in the coming months, especially as leave the proverbial summer doldrums.
Gold Market Volatility Outlook (GVZ)
Gold itself continues to consolidate in a broad range between about $3150 and $3450, keeping the longer-term uptrend intact while allowing both realized and expected future volatility to recede back toward long-term baselines. As we’ve noted in previous reports, Gold is enjoying a secular bullish trend – which tends to bring generally lower volatility – amidst a falling US dollar and questions about the US’s position in the global economy. Expect continued bursts of volatility and quick reversions as long as the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Crypto Market Volatility Outlook (DVOL)
As in the far more mature stock, bond, and commodity markets, the outlook for Bitcoin volatility remains generally low. In fact, the expected volatility for Bitcoin is in the lowest percentile looking back over the last year!
As in the far more mature stock, bond, and commodity markets, the outlook for Bitcoin volatility remains generally low. In fact, the expected volatility for Bitcoin is in the lowest ventile (5%) looking back over the last year! Broadly speaking, volatility in the Bitcoin has generally declined since the blockchain’s “Genesis Block” in 2009.
Ultimately, growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an emerging asset class and a maturing set of increasingly institutional investors should continue to push Bitcoin’s volatility lower over time, regardless of near-term macroeconomic developments. Indeed, the simmering trade war appears to be supporting continued Bitcoin adoption as investors seek alternative investments outside traditional finance, potentially leading to rapid “buy the dip” behavior and even lower volatility until the current bullish cycle ends.
Looking ahead, the outlook for volatility broadly speaking could remain subdued through the (Northern hemisphere) summer given the long-term seasonal trends and lack of obvious immediate policy catalysts.
What are the major events and indicators on tap for the global economy that could charge volatility in markets and reshape deeper fundamental themes? Sign up for the updated Global Macro Calendar updated each week with a two week look ahead of the top events!
Sign Up-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research, StoneX Self-Directed
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A sharp semiconductor selloff exposed how much of a modern index can ride on a single sector. The bigger lesson for long-term investors was that concentration, not the chips themselves, was the real risk sitting inside broad benchmarks.
The S&P 500 trades more heavily than almost any instrument on the planet, which is exactly why traders lean on it to read the market's mood. Understanding how it reflects risk-on and risk-off sentiment turns a single index into a wider gauge of where confidence is building or fading.
Tesla is prioritizing artificial intelligence, autonomy and robotics even as higher investment weighs on margins and free cash flow. The shift challenges investors to decide whether near-term pressure is destroying value or building the platforms that could drive Tesla’s next growth phase.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
