CoffeeNetwork (New York) - African coffee exports continue to rise sharply in 2025/26, reinforcing the continent’s growing role as a stabilizing force within an otherwise volatile global supply landscape. While production concerns and logistical disruption persist elsewhere, especially in Latin America and parts of Asia, East Africa has delivered both volume and value, led by Uganda and Ethiopia, with Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda also showing clear momentum. Recent official data confirm that Africa’s export growth is no longer episodic, but structural.
Uganda: Africa’s Export Engine Remains in High Gear
Uganda continues to anchor the continent’s export expansion. According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), exports reached 651,933 60‑kg bags in February 2026, valued at US$180.98 million, bringing total shipments for the twelve months to February 2026 to 8.8 million bags worth approximately US$2.5 billion.
That represents a 41% year‑on‑year increase in volume and a 61% jump in export value, supported by strong Robusta yields and surging Arabica performance from the Mount Elgon and Rwenzori regions. Robusta remained dominant at roughly 80% of exports, but Arabica shipments rose far more rapidly, reflecting rising specialty demand and higher realized prices. Uganda’s expansion has been driven by sustained replanting programs, improved farmer incentives, and consistent production conditions.
Ethiopia: Arabica Powerhouse Expands with Policy Reform
Ethiopia remains the continent’s Arabica cornerstone, with exports growing alongside record production. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Ethiopian coffee exports at 7.8 million bags in MY 2025/26, up more than 11% year‑on‑year, supported by production estimated at a record 11.6 million bags.
Structural reforms have played a decisive role. Expanded direct export rights, a market‑based foreign exchange regime, and revisions to minimum export pricing have shortened marketing chains and improved farm‑gate participation. Export earnings reached US$1.7 billion in 2023/24, with Saudi Arabia, Germany, Belgium, and the U.S. remaining the top destinations, while Asian demand continues to build.
Kenya: Quality‑Led Recovery Pushes Exports Higher
Kenya’s coffee sector is showing renewed export momentum after years of stagnation. USDA data indicate coffee exports of approximately 840,000 60‑kg bags in MY 2025/26, representing a 10% increase year‑on‑year, supported by production growth to 850,000 bags as higher prices pull farmers back into maintenance and rehabilitation.
From October 2025 through March 2026, 540,843 bags were traded through the Nairobi Coffee Exchange, generating KES 24.7 billion (US$191 million), with premium AA and AB grades comprising three‑quarters of traded volume. While Kenya remains a smaller exporter in volume terms relative to Uganda and Ethiopia, its role in high‑quality washed Arabica markets remains strategically important for specialty buyers.
Tanzania: Robusta Expansion Drives Export Growth
Tanzania’s coffee exports are also trending higher, increasingly supported by Robusta expansion in the northwest. The USDA projects exports of 1.36–1.37 million bags in MY 2025/26, up from 1.25 million bags the previous season.
Total production is forecast at 1.45 million bags, split between Arabica from the northern and southern highlands and Robusta primarily from the Kagera region. The European Union remains Tanzania’s largest destination, followed by Japan and the United States. Government‑backed seedling programs and favorable prices have encouraged acreage expansion, particularly for Robusta, reinforcing Tanzania’s growing relevance in the global supply balance.
Rwanda: Smaller Volumes, Exceptional Value Growth
Rwanda stands out for export value rather than scale. According to the National Agricultural Export Development Board (NAEB), Rwanda exported 23,860 metric tons of green coffee in 2025, equivalent to roughly 397,700 60‑kg bags, generating nearly US$150 million in export revenue.
Export volumes rose 39% year‑on‑year, while revenues surged 65%, driven by higher international prices and Rwanda’s continued emphasis on specialty and traceable coffees. Average export prices climbed to US$6.20/kg, significantly above regional averages, with strong demand from Europe, the U.S., and emerging Middle Eastern markets supporting the premium. Rwanda’s strategy underscores how smaller origins are increasingly capturing disproportionate value in the global Arabica segment.
Regional Impact and Market Implications
Together, these five origins are reshaping Africa’s position in global coffee trade. International Coffee Organization‑aligned figures show African exports reached a record 1.18 million metric tons in 2025, with Uganda and Ethiopia accounting for nearly 80% of shipments, and East Africa now representing close to 12% of global exports.
For the global market, Africa’s export strength is dampening extreme price volatility by offsetting tightness elsewhere, particularly in Robusta markets. At the same time, growing volumes raise strategic questions around infrastructure, financing, and regulatory compliance, especially as the EU Deforestation Regulation approaches implementation.
What is increasingly clear is that Africa is no longer simply a marginal balancing origin. In 2026, it is a central pillar of global coffee supply, with Uganda delivering scale, Ethiopia anchoring Arabica quality, Kenya and Rwanda reinforcing the premium segment, and Tanzania expanding Robusta capacity.
Alexis Rubinstein
