
Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report

- Coffee
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
After Frosts in Brazil, Index for Arabica Skyrockets and Surpasses 1,000 BRL/Bag
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The frosts registered in the coffee-producing regions in Brazil between July 19 and 20 boosted the domestic prices for arabica coffee. Thus, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6 (delivered to São Paulo city) surpassed 1,000 BRL/60-kilo bag, a nominal record in the series of Cepea, which began in 1996. Low temperatures were registered in all arabica-producing areas in Brazil, and, according to agents of CEPEA, from 5 to 30% of crops – depending on the region – may have been affected by the frosts.
The most severe frosts were registered in northwestern Paraná, southern Minas Gerais and in some areas in the Mogiana Paulista; however, total damages have not been assessed yet. Agents are mostly concerned about production next season (2022/23). The productive potential of crops will certainly be reduced, but accurate estimates about losses are supposed to be released in the coming weeks.
As for prices, on July 30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6 (delivered to São Paulo city) closed at 1,014.44 BRL (195.20 USD)/60-kilo bag, 20.16% (a staggering +170.23 Reais/bag) up in the month. On July 26, this Index closed at 1,067.27 BRL/bag (206.24 USD/bag), a new nominal record in the series of Cepea. In real terms, this is the highest level since January 2012 (values were deflated by the IGP-DI from Jun/21).
Despite the valuations, only a few agents were interested in closing deals in late July, due to the high volatility of prices and expectations for new rises. As regards the US dollar, it closed at 5.197 BRL, 4.5% up in the month.
It is important to highlight that, besides the frosts, agents are also worried about the dry weather in most Brazilian regions since April. The combination of low temperatures with lower water reservoirs may reduce the productive potential of crops even more in 2022/23, which may lead prices to swing widely in the coming months.
ROBUSTA – The prices for robusta coffee increased in July too, reflecting the strong price rises for arabica coffee after the recent frosts, the risk of lower supply in the 2022/23 season and technical movements. Frosts were not registered in the robusta-producing regions in Brazil.
On July 30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo, closed at 580.56 BRL (111.71 USD)/bag, 16% up in the month.
Some deals for robusta were closed in late July, but the high volatility of prices and perspectives for higher valuations – due to the negative estimates for the output in 2022/23 – are keeping farmers away from the market.
EXPORTS – The Brazilian coffee exports in the 2020/21 season set a new record. Between July/20 and June/21, Brazil exported 45.59 million bags (60 kilos) of coffee (considering green, roasted and soluble beans), the highest volume in the series of Cecafé (Coffee Exporters Council), which began in 1990, and 13.3% up from that in the 2019/20 season. Until then, the highest amount exported was registered in 2018/19, when Brazil shipped 41.4 million bags of coffee. Considering only green beans, exports totaled 41.63 million bags in 20/21, 15% more than that in the previous season.
The record volume exported was a reflection of both the high output in the 2020/21 season and the strong dollar, which encourages farmers to sell coffee to the international market and increases the competitiveness of the Brazilian product. Despite the good performance, in the last months, agents reported that the lack of containers and the low availability of ships (because of the covid-19 pandemic) hampered and delayed coffee exports. Cepea collaborators believe that these logistic issues may still last in the coming months.
Alexis Rubinstein
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Daily coffee report


August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.


Daily coffee report

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.