By: Peter Rowley, Risk Manager - Energy
Afternoon Propane Market Commentary NGLs mostly followed a similar trajectory as WTI and product markets to start the week with opening prints turning out to be the lows of the session, the lone exception being Ethane which continues its tear higher along with Nat Gas. TET propane saw an opening range down to $1.24/gal, a loss of as much as 3.375cpg or 2.6% from Friday’s settles but was spared from larger losses seen in WTI that opened below $93/bbl. TET propane rallied as much as 3.75cpg off that low print $1.24 going into the close, a level which is a familiar as it happened to be March’s lowest settlement. May22 Conway traded in slightly tighter range from $1.2150-1.2275/gal with late in the session prints pegging the front month N/S basis at -2.875cpg, a .25cpg uptick from Friday’s settles but right at the average for last week.
| MAY22: 4-11-22 EOD CME | ||||||||||||
| Last | 1d Δ Net | 1d Δ % | High | Low | Est Volume | 30d Avg Vol | Vol/30d | Prior OI | Prior OI Chg | 52 wk Hi | 52 wk Lo | |
| Mt Belvieu LST Propane | 1.25500 | -0.01813 | -1.44 | 1.26000 | 1.24000 | 8700 | 9341 | 93.14% | 113334 | 505 | 1.57375 | 0.73125 |
| Conway Propane | 1.22625 | -0.01563 | -1.27 | 1.22750 | 1.21500 | 1573 | 977 | 161.08% | 16458 | -30 | 1.52750 | 0.69125 |
| Normal Butane EPC | 1.47750 | -0.03125 | -2.12 | 1.50000 | 1.47250 | 2805 | 3282 | 85.47% | 44320 | 171 | 1.57375 | 0.80000 |
| Ethane | 0.49000 | 0.00937 | 1.91 | 0.49250 | 0.48750 | 759 | 2449 | 31.00% | 44391 | 210 | 1.94750 | 0.80250 |
| Natural Gasoline | 2.14500 | -0.07125 | -3.32 | 2.16000 | 2.13000 | 290 | 1599 | 18.14% | 33162 | 28 | 2.82500 | 1.33375 |
Monday’s action saw the back end of the TET curve saw similar downward pressure as the front end of the curve, a shift from recent price movements that has seen the front end collapse while deferred expirations were spared from total destruction. Last week saw the cal23 TET strip settle just .25cpg lower compared to weekly losses of roughly 7.50cpg for May22 contract. With headline prices nearly 25cpg off the March highs and right at monthly lows of $1.24/gal, it's worth noting the cal23 strip has failed to provide such a discount. The current price for the cal average strip is about 22.00cpg lower relative to where headline prices are, and that is about about 8cpg higher compared to four weeks ago. Much of this is attributed to the realignment of the crude curve as coordinated SPR releases and pledges to repurchase at a later date has put a floor under out months and pressure up front.
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